Another year and another rookie draft is in the books. Thank you all for making this league so exciting and fun. I’m grateful to be a part of it. Now, let’s take a look at how I see each of you did. I’ll be emptying most of my brain in these grades so you’ll know exactly how I feel about many of these rookies. I’ve been open and honest about my usage of Establish the Run draft kit and Late Round QB Prospect Guide. I don’t follow them, but I use them to help me be better informed to make my own decisions. I take ownership of my decisions and I realize life isn’t that serious, so I try not to stress even if some of those decisions blow up in my face. (Alexander Mattison in Round 5 of a startup draft, trading up in the 2nd for Blake Corum, etc.). If you are offended by these words then ignore them. It doesn’t matter what I think about YOUR team. It’s YOURS. I’ll be doing them in original draft order, so if picks look out of place that’s why. I hope you enjoy.
1.Dan
Dan traded his 1.01 pick and Chris Olave to Wesley for Justin Jefferson and Michael Penix. Dan’s QBs are old so this is a great trade for him. It also opened him up with the 2.01 pick to not need to take Cam Ward. The trade wind up being Jeanty/Olave for JJ/Penix AND flexibility at 2.01.
With that 2.01 pick Dan selected… CAM SCATTEBO! I think coaches are going to love this kid. Grinder. Doesn’t know when to quit-type of runner. Carried two teams on his back. Got better every year. He was the 2nd running back in the 4th round taken and the 8th running back taken overall. I like Scattebo. People will knock his speed and I get that. He doesn’t have that breakaway speed like some backs do. But he is quick and fast around the line of scrimmage. And that can be enough. Him and Tracy will most likely be a duo together for the next couple years but if you are at the goal line you’re using Scattebo. He’s got great hands too. Late Round QB has a 79.8 prospect score on him with comps to Kareem Hunt, Zach Moss, and KeShawn Vaughn. I will say this though. I was surprised that Dan passed on Matthew Golden. Golden was taken in the 1st round of the NFL draft by the Packers, a team that hadn’t drafted a WR in the first round since Javon Walker in 2002. That’s a long ass time. Scattebo was the 2nd RB taken in the 4th round. A 4th round RB vs a 1st round WR. I couldn’t pull that trigger. But I get Dan wanting to secure a RB from this awesome draft class. Plus Packers WRs are a clusterfuck and Dan is very strong at WR post-JJ trade. Establish the Run has Matthew Golden as their #6 PLAYER in this entire draft class. Over Egbuka, Over RJ Harvey, Over Kaleb Johnson, Over Judkins, and Over Both TE prospects. They are extremely bullish on Golden. I’m not that high on him, but it’s interesting to point out.
Dan also had 2.06. He took Tre Harris. I like Tre Harris a lot. LRQB Prospect Score: 80.9 comps to Cedric Tillman, the WR Dan traded away last year in a package deal to Brad for Tee Higgins. His main competition will be aging Mike Williams and Quentin Johnston entering his 3rd year. QJ had a MUCH better Year 2 than Year 1. Can he keep improving? Can he have a third year breakout? I like Harris’s chances to overcome Mike Williams. If not Week 1 then at some point throughout the season. Ladd McConkey is going to remain the WR1, but Harris should be able to take over WR3 duties and be an added handcuff if Williams and/or QJ goes down to injury. Love the talent. Great contested catch player. Solid pick.
At 3.09 he took a flier on Jalen Milroe. I like the pick. Milroe was so talented and had flashes of greatness. If he fixes his consistency and/or gets an opportunity in the event Darnold goes down to injury, look out. Has that incredible rushing ability like Jalen Hurts. I was expecting him to go Jarquez Hunter to get a potential Kyren backup but I don’t hate the pick due to the upside of Milroe.
Dans late picks included 4.6 Kyle Monangai, 4.8 Isaac TeSlaa. It’s crazy that a 3rd round WR fell to the back side of round 4 in our rookie draft. TeSlaa has a prospect score of 72.1 which is great value at 4.08. Amon-Ra is coming off surgery and Jameson Williams is eying a breakout. He could carve out a role. Monangai has a chance to compete with Swift for Chicago running shares unless they add a veteran like Nick Chubb or JK Dobbins. Or trade for a RB as a few rumors have suggested could happen.
Draft Grade: A. Acquiring JJ for 1.01 and Olave tips the scales on this one. I do think 2.01 was not the right choice, but 2.06 made up for it in value. If you take out the JJ trade and look at only picks it was more of a B- for me. But JJ is JJ.
2. Wesley
Wesley came in hot. Trading away Kenny Walker and Justin Jefferson. Acquiring 1.01 when he had 1.02. With those picks he selects Omarion Hampton and Ashton Jeanty. According to LateRoundQB Jeanty has a prospect score of 99.7. The only RB in history to beat that score was CMC. Hampton was no slouch either. He came in at a 98.2 prospect score. His model looks at Breakout score, best-season reception share, weight, speed score, teammate score, age, and draft capital. He comps Jeanty to Mark Ingram, D’Andre Swift, and Jonathan Taylor. He comps Hampton to Todd Gurley (my comp for him), Ezekiel Elliot, and Rashaad Penny (what might have been, le sigh). Now according to Establish the Run there aren’t any running backs that correlate to Jeanty enough to be comped to him. The closest was Bijan, Kenneth Walker, Javonte Williams, and Todd Gurley. But let’s be real. He’s the truth. Raiders are going to give him so many touches he should be a Top 5 Fantasy RB in Year 1. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t.
With Hampton, Establish the Run saw more correlated comps including Najee Harris and Breece Hall. He’s probably somewhere in between. But in the Greg Roman offense he should be a great fantasy asset. But don’t be surprised if Najee gets a decent chunk of work because he is a professional running back. Also, you need to mentally prepare yourself now for when Roman throws in Hassan Haskins for no reason whatsoever to dive over the pile from the 1 yard line. But great pick and I like it even more for his Year 2. Another thing I like about this pick is the strategy. By going RB-RB you allowed yourself to take best player available at 2.02.
With that 2.02 Wesley went Jayden Higgins. Stud drafted at the 2.02 in the NFL draft AND the 2.02 in the Dynamo Rookie Draft. Crazy. His top comp is Nico Collins. Many call him a Nico Collins clone. Well Nico Collins is a great WR, why isn’t Higgins higher on draft boards? Because he happens to be on the same team as… Nico Collins. He should start as the WR2 right away due to Diggs being gone and Tank Dell being dead. Reports are coming out about Stroud struggling through a shoulder issue, but it’s early summer so no need to panic yet on that.
Wesley traded back into the 2nd. Shipping Isaac Guerendo, 3.02, and a 2026 3rd for pick 2.08. He used that pick to select Mason Taylor, LSU TE on the Jets. I liked Taylor at LSU. It just felt good when he caught the ball. I think the price for him was pretty steep, but I understand you trying to go up and get your guy. LRQB gave him a prospect score of 72.33, so they weren’t as bullish on him as other rankers. ETR also didn’t have him high, instead ranking him as the TE6 of this draft class. So I like the aggressiveness to get your guy, but don’t necessarily agree with your guy being your guy. Fields likes TE’s, but the team will most likely be heavily run-first. But hey, anything can happen. He should be target #2 behind Garret Wilson, and that’s not nothing.
Wesley kept wheeling and dealing and wind up with Pat Bryant at 3.06, Konata Mumpfield at 5.02 and Jacory Croskey-Merritt at 5.11. Bryant is graded out as a 73.2 prospect score with comps to Javon Baker, the hyped up NE WR that didn’t do jack shit last year. Mumpfield is a throw away pick, but I liked the upside of Croskey-Merritt. Brian Robinson is entering a contract year and Austin Ekeler is almost aged out.
Draft Grade: B. Trading away JJ is rough man. It’s like trading away Randy Moss. He’s had shitty QBs before and still smashed so I’m not worried about JJ McCarthy. With that said. Jeanty is a Top 5 Dynasty RB right from the gate. He is a Top 5 RB this season if healthy. Olave is still young and very talented. #1 WR on a team that could be bad and need to throw a lot. Kellen Moore offenses typically do well for #1 WRs. The Kenneth Walker trade hurt me, but that had more to do with next years draft not this draft. Jeanty-Hampton-Higgins-Taylor is a great haul from this draft class, so I can’t knock you too bad.
3. Andy
Andy has been talking about Quishon Judkins since last year. He was his guy. I don’t think landing spot mattered for Andy. Judkins received a LTQB Prospect score of 93.4 with comps of Melvin Gordon. He should plug in immediately into the Browns vacated Nick Chubb role. A role of first and second down and red zone running back. They may use Sampson or Ford in 2 minute drills and/or hurry up offenses, but Judkins will get first crack on most drives I’d imagine. Performances in college that stood out to Andy were against LSU when he was at Ole Miss. And other performances that highlighted his epic stiff arm ability. One of his top comped players according to establish the run was Will Shipley believe it or not. But also Breece Hall and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. With that being said they also mentioned this stat:
List of freshmen to run for 1,400 yards and 5.5 YPC in a Power 4 conference since 2000:
Jonathan Taylor
Adrian Peterson
Samaje Perine
Ryan Williams
Nick Chubb
LaMichael James
Javion Hawkins
Sean Tucker
Tyreel Sutton
JK Dobbins.
Some huge hits there. Andy did not have a 2nd round pick due to his trade with Adam last season to acquire Sam Darnold.
At 3.03 Andy selected DJ Giddens. JTs new handcuff. His prospect score isn’t great at a 67.0 but his comps aren’t terrible. Tevin Coleman, Cam Akers, Marlon Mack. All these backs seemed to stay in the NFL longer than one would think. Hell Andy still had Cam Akers rostered. He had a couple random RB2 finishes in random weeks last season. JT has missed 16 games the last 3 seasons, worth stashing the handcuff in my opinion. Giddens just needs to get past Khalil Herbert on the depth chart first.
At 4.03 Andy selected Tyler Shough. Incredible value and love the fit for Andy. Herbert and Darnold are starters but Shough gives Andy some breathing room knowing Darnold has Jalen Milroe breathing down his neck. JO went Sanders a pick before, a QB that is 4th on the depth chart which allowed Andy to take Shough who might be QB1 to start the season. Great, great value for my brother and he gets the potential Shough-Kamara stack.
Got Will Howard late since Rodgers is probably a one and done and Mason Rudolph isn’t a starter.
Draft Grade: C. I respect Andy getting his guy. I had Judkins ranked behind the two wideouts and maybe Treyveon Henderson, but I respect you going to get your guy. Andy did it with Gibbs in the startup draft. Last season he took Marvin Harrison Jr. He’s building a very competitive team by getting a little better each year. His main need heading into the draft was RB behind Kamara and depth at QB. He solved both issues. Solid.
4. Ollie.
I was shocked when Ollie selected Luther Burden. I could have sworn he was going Tuten with this pick due to him already having Etienne and Tank Bigsby. This would have locked down the Jacksonville backfield in a Liam Coen offense. But I also understand that both were pretty much unusable last year. So one way to break the cycle is to avoid the same situation this year. Plus let’s be real. Luther Burden was too good a value not to draft here. Several pundits had him as their #1 WR in this draft class. Over Tet and over Hunter. I am not one of those pundits, but a slip to 2.04 is just silly. Should take over the slot role for Ben Johnson. Has a chance to be special and hopefully the drop into the 2nd round of the draft gives him motivation to prove others wrong. LRQB thinks you got a steal as they gave Burden a prospect score of 95.2. (For perspective Tet was 96.0 and Egbuka was 95.8). They comped him to DJ Moore, Brandon Aiyuk and Jarvis Landry. That would be pretty sweet eh?
Ollie didn’t pick again until Round 4 where he selected Jalen Royals. Then he snagged Xavier Restrepo in Round 5. Royals had a draft prospect score of 56.9 and Restrepo was 17.3 mainly because he wasn’t drafted. But he has rapport with Cam Ward already and with aging wideouts there he very well could make the team. Royals top comp was… Rashee Rice.
Draft Grade: A. For only having three picks I thought Ollie maximized it. He upgraded his WR room with one stud and two fliers that could work out. Luther Burden at 2.04 could be an incredible steal.
5. Colton
Colton was wheeling and dealing in 2024 and wind up with 3 1sts in 2025 and 2 1sts in 2026. Rich with picks. He selected Trevyeon Henderson at 1.05, stud RB out of Ohio State. At this state of the draft he had the 5th pick, Mike B had the 6th pick, and then Colton had Picks 7 and 8. So he had a choice to make. Take Tet McMillian and let Mike Bellocq take Trevyeon Henderson and then have to choose between Harvey/Kaleb Johnson to pair with his TE OR take Trevyeon Henderson and let Mike Bellocq take Tet McMillian and then take Egbuka and a tight end. He made his choice. Colt took Henderson, Mike B took Tet. Henderson received a prospect score of 94.1 with comps to David Wilson, James Cook, and JK Dobbins according to LRQB. Everything I’ve heard is about how amazing he is in pass protection. He should take 2 minute drills and hurry up offense right away and take over the backfield entirely by midseason. There’s a chance Rhamondre takes the goal line work and eats in to some of the Vrabel ground and pound pie, but he’s a great player. He would have been the top RB taken in 2024 but instead he went back to Ohio State and helped them win a championship. He’ll be Drake Maye’s protector and dump off valve. It’s a great pick for Colt. I think he’s a bit safer than Tet and also secures a Top RB for Colt in this “RB Draft”.
With his next selection at 1.07 Colt took RJ Harvey. An older rookie, but hand picked by Sean Payton. Javonte is in Dallas. Jaleel McLaughlin had a lil pop but isn’t going to handle a large workload. Estime is still a project. LRQB has him with an 84.2 prospect score most likely lessened by his age. Two of the three comps were unknowns but an intriguing one was Chase Brown. A Chase Brown in a Sean Payton offense? That’s sexy. I had Kaleb ranked higher but I see the potential and respect the choice.
Colt then took Tyler Warren at 1.08. LOVE this pick. I honestly considered him at 4 once I made my decision on Tet. Hunter was just too tempting to pass up. NFL.com has him ranked as a higher prospect than Bowers, which is insane. LRQB has him as a 91.82 prospect score and had Loveland higher more likely due to age. Establish The Run was also not happy with the landing spot, but they figured if the offense flounders this season a new regime will come in and possibly draft or sign a better QB situation. Assuming Richardson and/or Daniel Jones doesn’t work out.
You should be excited about this selection Colt. Just watch the play against Maryland at the 7:34 mark:
Tyler Warren | 2024 Highlights
Early in the 2nd Quarter Against Maryland. The QB takes the snap. Warren stays with his block, giving the Qb a chance to step up. He runs behind QB. QB tosses it back to Warren. Snapped at the 48 yard line, by the time the QB pitches it back to Warren he catches it at the 40. Then he stiff arms one defender at the 45, hurdles a defender at the 47. Breaks another tackle at the opposite 40. Sprints down the sideline and gets tackled at the 21 yard line for an official 31 yard rush, that he ran for 39 yards. Breaking 3 tackles after blocking the DE enough to give QB a chance to escape. You drafted a Kittle. A Manimal. Let’s hope Colts can unleash his potential. Dudes a BEAST.
Colt took Jordan James at 3.02. CMC was hurt most of last year. Guerendo was banged up. Not a bad flier to have 3rd stringer for the Niners offense. He’s a short back, a little Jaylen Warren to his game. LRQB had a 61.4 grade on him. But think Niners offense elevates that a bit.
Late rounds Colt took Tai Felton and Brashard Smith. Smith was a 55.4 and Felton was a 66.4. Felton will most likely be 4th target on Vikings and Smith will be a change of pace back behind Pacheco and Hunt in KC.
Draft Grade: A. I liked Tet over Henderson and Kaleb over Harvey, but to each their own. You got Treyveon Henderson, RJ Harvey, Jordan James, and Brashard Smith. Four running backs in an incredible RB class. Epic. KTC had you move from worst running back group in the league to 7th, up five spots. Which is great. You also got an amazing Tight End who I love and will be a matchup nightmare for. Plug and play starter at TE. Great job Colt.
6. JO
Justin Overman inherited a mess. We should all be very appreciative he was willing to step into a difficult situation and take over a failed roster to try and turn it around. JO is new to dynasty, but he showed the commitment required by making his picks even while participating in a 610 Stomper Bar Crawl in New Orleans. Respect brother. He started off strong with pick 1.11 getting Emeka Egbuka. In my opinion this was the safest pick in the whole draft. I LOVE Egbuka as a prospect and I love his fit in Tampa. With Godwin coming back from a devastating injury that presents a lot of unknowns you get an Ohio State beast cut from the same cloths as Marvin Harrison Jr, Chris Olave, JSN, Garret Wilson, etc. He is so freaking good too. His LRQB prospect score was a 95.8! Which was the 5th highest in the entire draft class. His top comp was Chris Godwin. Establish the Run has him as their 8th best rookie in this class with comps to Rashee Rice, Michael Thomas, and Brandon Auyik. The only knock on him is that he is behind Evans and Godwin. But they aren’t spring chickens. And Tampa throws a lot. Love this pick.
In the 2nd round JO was given a gift from the God’s. Somehow Matthew Golden fell to him at 2.03. That’s because the two picks before them were a 4th round running back and a 2nd round wide receiver. Golden was taken by the Packers at pick #22, their first WR taken in the first round since 2002. That WR room is wide open. His prospect score was an 88.7 according to LRQB with comps to Ladd McConkey and Curtis Samuel. Establish the Run LOVES this guy though. They have him as their 6th highest player in the draft class. Two first round WRs to upgrade your dynasty roster is a great start.
JO Made more good moves with Dylan Sampson with the 3.01 and Jaxson Dart with 3.04. Sampson was my favorite running back prior to the draft and I was eyeing him for my pick 2.05. But once he was drafted by the Browns after they had already selected Quinshon Judkins I dropped him down my rankings. He’s got some Blake Corum and Devonta Freeman to his game. Prospect score was a 69.9, dropping due to where he was taken in the draft. Dart was a great pick. Need a backup to Jayden Daniels. He should take over at some point over Russ Wilson and Jameis Winston.
At 4.01 you took Trevor Etienne who joins a crowded Panthers backfield. But his prospect score was actually higher than Sampsons at a 78.8! Showing you got great value here. He’ll compete with Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle in Year 1. The Sanders pick at 4.02 was a funny flier pick. At 4.05 you traded the pick to me and got Jaleel McLaughlin. JK Dobbins went to Denver for a visit, but he didn’t sign. If Broncos stick with Harvey, Estime, and McLaughlin he could have some handcuff value and keep his change of pace role going. He’s had some periods of pop. Nice flier on Damien Martinez in the 5th round. He got drafted by the Seahawks where Kenneth Walker is entering a contract year.
Draft Grade: A. You did great JO! You did great! Egbuka-Golden-Sampson-Etienne-Dart are some great building blocks to your new dynasty team! I didn’t care of the Sanders pick, but loved all the other ones. And who knows? Maybe Sanders does work out after all that draft drama. That would be sweet eh?
7. Mike Dickinson
Dickinson pushed his chips all in last season and came up short in the playoffs. This led to him only having a 2nd and a 3rd. Then he traded away Stefon Diggs for 2.08. With 2.07 he snagged Kyle Williams. Not a bad dart throw. Someone has to catch passes for New England. It can’t continue to be Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper for God’s sake. Williams had a prospect score of 76.6. He’s been getting hyped up a lot, but I didn’t have him as high. I remember last season when people were talking up Polk and Javon Baker only to have them both suck and not be able to pass up Demario Douglas. Plus they are going to run the ball. A lot. I liked Bech more personally, but we’ll see what happens.
With 2.08 Dickinson got tremendous value, trading it away to Wesley for Isaac Guerendo, 2026 3rd and 3.02. THEN he traded with me and shipped 3.02 for 3.07 and a 2026 4th. So for 2.08 he got Guerendo, 3.07, 2026 3rd and 2026 4th. According to KTC Trade Calculator he got 10,199 points of value while losing 6,406 points. A 37% value in return. Brilliant! Then he used 3.07 to select Ollie Gordon. Gordon has a prospect score of 63.4 but some nice comps like James Conner and Rhamondre Stevenson. He is not a burner, but he adds an element the Dolphins don’t have. A sledge hammer. While all the fast Achanes, Wrights, Waddles and Tyreeks are running around they finally have someone they can just run up the middle to tire out the defense a little bit. I like a few guys better here, but since he has Achane I don’t hate the pick for him.
Dickinson got Woody Marks at 3.12, which was great value. Woody is a pass catching specialist who joins a beatable group of Running Backs other than starter Joe Mixon. Mixon is getting older though, so having his handcuff is a valuable thing. His prospect score was higher than Gordons with a 73.6. At 5.7 Dickinson chose Riley Leonard which I take as more of a trolling job towards me who has Anthony Richardson and not a legitimate dynasty stash.
Draft Grade: B-. He did great with trades, but not with picks in my mind. But he was looking to upgrade his RB depth and I think he succeeded. Isaac G, Ollie Gordon, and Woody Marks helps a lot. Kyle Williams could workout but I’m doubtful. Leonard is a throw away, but acquiring a 3rd and 4th for next year was nice, raising his grade a bit.
8. Brad
Brad shocked the free world. He had Ollie’s pick from last years blockbuster where he sent Mahomes, Addison, and a 2nd to Ollie for Dak, JT, and a 1st. Due to some terrible luck for Ollie (or luck for Brad) Ollie missed the playoffs and secured Brad with a Top 5 pick. It happens. With that pick Brad saw 3 straight RBs off the board. Initially my pick was Tet McMillian. Establish the Run has Tet as their #2 rookie over Omarion Hampton. LateRoundQB has Hunter edging him out prospect score wise 97.1 to 96.0. Both had higher scores than other players on the board and I felt like my roster allowed for me to draft Best Player Available (BPA). So what made me decide Hunter over Tet? Lots of things. Tet McMillian’s comps were Tee Higgins, Courtland Sutton, Drake London, Mike Williams and even Marvin Harrison Jr. But also DeVante Parker, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Quentin Johnston, N’Keal Harry. A few people comped him to Mike Evans, but Mike Evans has 38″ arms whereas the rest of that entire list is more like 31-34 inch arms. Evans is a unicorn mixed with Mr. Fantastic and McMillian isn’t Evans. So which one is it?
I began analyzing film and it was tough. He was on a terrible team. Arizona went 4-8 and his Qb sucked. He also got double or triple covered a bunch after his blow up Week 1 game against a High School team where he went for 300 yards. The 8 drops were concerning but debatable, because again some of the throws were very bad. Establish the Run is convinced he is Drake London and will play the power slot role that elevated London to a Top 5 Fantasy WR in 2024. I was not convinced. Panthers have Tet, Jalen Coker, Adam Thielen, Hunter Renfrow, Jimmy Horn Jr. And Xavier Legette. Theilen, Renfrow, and Horn’s are slot type WRs. Legette is an outside WR. Or at least that’s how they were forced to use him last year. Tet was mainly an outside big bodied X receiver, but did play some slot and did well there in college. Panthers also spread the ball around. Now that could have been because they didn’t have a talent of Tet’s caliber on their roster. Do they use Tet outside to free up Legette inside? I don’t know.
For me he was more Courtland Sutton. That was my comp. Sutton has been in the league 7 seasons and has exactly 0 WR1 (Top 12) PPR Seasons. His best one was last season after I traded him away and he finished as WR#15. I traded away Tee Higgins and Courtland Sutton last season, am I really going to draft another one? Well what is the alternative? I started looking into Travis Hunter.
Now the first major concern would be: I already have BTJ, is drafting Travis Hunter retarded? I did an analysis looking at WR1/WR2s on the same team. I started looking at the big WR duos in the league:
AJB/Devonta Smith
JJ/Jordan Addison
Chase/Tee Higgins
Amon-Ra St. Brown/Jameson Williams
Mike Evans/Chris Godwin
DK Metcalf/JSN and then JSN/DK Metcalf
Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle
Garret Wilson/Davante Adams
You get the picture. My question was: does having two WRs on the same team limit my ceiling, the average, and/or the floor of the WR combo? And the results were… interesting. You would think it would impact ceiling the most. But that isn’t what I found. For example, would it have been better to have AJB/Devonta Smith stack versus AJB/Addison or AJB/JSN in 2024?
Out of the 17 weeks last year AJB and Smith were both healthy in 11 of them. In those 11 weeks AJB/Smith were the best combination 3 times (outscoring AJB paired with another teams’ WR2). They were the worst combo 4 times. AJB/Addison was the best combination 1 time and the worst combination twice. So is pairing AJB with Smith instead of Addison hurting the combination’s ceiling? No. But here is where we get into the subjective.
Smith is better than Addison. Okay. Let’s look at another example.
JJ/Addison vs. JJ/Smith?
JJ/Smith averaged 1.332 more points per game than JJ/Addison. Slightly better to have Smith.
Out of the 17 weeks last year JJ and Addison were both healthy in 13 of them. In those 13 weeks JJ/Addison were the best combination 3 times. JJ/Smith were the best combination 3 times. JJ/JSN were the best 4 times, but again you can argue JSN became the WR1 on the Seahawks midseason. JJ/Addison were the worst duo 3 times. JJ/Smith were the worst duo 4 times. So the ceilings didn’t really get impacted. The floor and the averages did. Logically this makes sense. If the team is shut out, both WR’s score low and you probably lose the week. BUT. If they are in a shootout. Both WRs could pop off and win you the week. So it introduces some volatility, but can actually raise the ceiling depending on the situation. Successful example would be Chase/Higgins, but Chase is Chase, so he should be viewed as an outlier. Tyreek/Waddle was a shitshow and represents the worst case scenario of having two WRs on the same team. But if you look at the non outliers it isn’t all that bad. Imagine having JJ and Addison in Week 14 last year when they combined for 71.5 points! Or averages 43+ points per game like Chase/Higgins did last year! I could live with the risk, but I had to look further.
Then I had to look at Liam Coen’s Offensive philosophy. I had to look at Travis Hunter as a WR prospect. (I ignored IDP TD for the most part). Evans and Godwin were smashing for Tampa last year.
They both got hurt in Week 7. But before that they combined for 31.9+ points in 5/6 games. They even had 40+ in 2 games. Coen moves WRs around. BTJ will play some slot, Travis Hunter will play some slot. And both of them are capable of making amazing plays. Coen’s system is a good one. And I’m convinced the Jaguars don’t trade 2 1sts and more to acquire a player and not play him on every single high value play in the football game. Redzone, 2-minute drills, hurry-up offenses. He’s BTJ level and they have a ton of vacated targets due to losing Gabe Davis(42), Christian Kirk(47), and Evan Engram(64).
In conclusion, I was good with WR1/WR2 on same team situation. I was good on offensive system. Only question that remained was… is Travis Hunter really that good? The film was an resounding yes. He wasn’t just the most athletic player, he was the most intelligent. The final nail in the coffin was the same term I heard over and over again. 5 different profilers referred to him as “a unicorn”. I could sleep knowing I missed on Tet McMillian if he turns into Drake London. I couldn’t sleep knowing I passed on one of the potential greatest football players that has ever lived. Because that is within Hunter’s range of outcomes. Playing CB adds snaps which adds probabilities that he could be injured. Other risk is if Tet becomes WR1 unlike Sutton and more like London. I’m okay with that risk. One more stat that stood out to me. Average Yards of Separation Created. Tet= 2.8 Yards (20th percentile). Hunter= 5.9 Yards (91% percentile). 5.9 yards of separation!
Enough on my first pick. At 2.05 I narrowly missed out on Luther Burden! Who went to Ollie at 2.04 for an insane value. Instead I decided to take a RB in this incredibly deep RB class. Insert Bhaysul Tuten who went at pick 4.02 and one pick ahead of Cam Scattebo to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jaguars back to back?!?! I’m not bullish on the Jags but I am bullish on Liam Coen. He did some incredible work in Tampa. It seems like everyone he coached elevated. Tuten is a speedster. My favorite play from him came against Miami. Middle of the field, Miami loaded the box to stop a 3rd and short. Big mistake. Tuten breaks a tackle and takes it to the house 55 yards. His prospect score came in at an 84.9 ahead of RJ Harvey. But I’m realistic. The only reason was due to age. Tuten is 23 years old and Harvey is 24 years old. One of Tuten’s top comps was Kenneth Walker. Which obviously caught my attention. Wasn’t planning on going all in on the Jaguars, but needed to slake my 2025 RB class lust.
In round 3 I traded up with Mike Dickinson. Sending a 2026 4th to him to move up 5 spots and snag Terrance “Turd” Ferguson. What can I say? I like TE’s named Ferguson. LRQB was very high on him and that’s why I moved up to get him. His prospect score was an 88.1, but interesting enough he had him in the same tier as Warren and Loveland! That I don’t believe, but I like the sound of it. I don’t see him being relevant much this season with Higbee and Adams there, but 2026 and beyond he could be the TE1 I’ve been missing. (One can only hope).
I traded back into round 4 by shipping Jaleel McLaughlin to JO for 4.05. I selected Jarquez Hunter. Mainly due to his last name, but also because Rams RBs are fantasy gold mines. If Kyren gets hurt I have the handcuff secured by having both Corum and Hunter. Or at least that’s the plan.
Draft Grade: C-. Drafting two Jags when I already have one. Drafting two Rams when Stafford is almost retired. Plus taking Travis Hunter (BIG RISK) with a Top 4 pick and Tuten, a third string RB. This was a lot riskier draft than usual for myself. It could work out great or it could blow up spectacularly in my face. Can’t wait to find out which it is!
9. Oscar
Oscar’s beloved Tyler Warren was yanked by Colt one pick before Oscar was up, so he had to pivot. With concerns at RB behind Josh Jacobs and Bucky Irving (Pacheco/Hunt situation, Najee sharing with Hampton, Estime having Harvey get drafted) he wanted to get that third option for the long season. Insert Kaleb Johnson. Carried the Iowa Hawkeyes on his back. He came in as an 86.5 prospect score from LRQB with comps to… wait for it.. Le’Veon Bell and James Conner. He wore black and yellow in college, it was like it was meant to be. ETR has his top comp as Zach Charbonnet. They have him ranked as RB16 in Dynasty right next to… Josh Jacobs. An argument could be made for taking Loveland here, but I understand the allure of the sexy RBs in this draft.
At 2.09 Oscar took Devin Neal. This was a bit of a reach for me. You had Bech, Blue, Terrance Ferguson available. Neal’s prospect score is a 65 with comps to Bishop Sankey. Now he was productive as hell at Kansas and Kamara is getting up there in years. But the Saints could be terrible. Kamara’s contract locks him in for next two seasons with no out. And Kendre Miller is still there. Prospects with scores of 88.1 and 80 were still out there. Didn’t care for this pick.
At 3.05 you selected Harold Fannin. Love this pick. Extremely productive Tight End enters a Browns team where David Njoku enters the last year of his contract. Fannin had an 84.3 prospect score. Higher than Mason Taylor. Oscar then shipped out 3.06 to Wesley (after repeatedly denying me for the pick) and also shipped out 3.09 to Dan.
He also got great value late selecting Elijah Arroyo at 4.9 and Dillon Gabriel at 5.9. Arroyo and Fannin give Oscar a couple young TEs to replace his aging starters. Here’s what I’ll have to say about Gabriel. Jeanty, Hunter, Gabriel, and Sanders were all at the Heisman Award Ceremony. Sanders was there supporting Hunter, his teammate. Gabriel was there because he was a finalist. Take with that what you will.
Draft Grade: B+. Loved the pick of Kaleb Johnson and the trades in the third. Loved the two TE’s which was a team need. Only thing that knocked it down was selecting Devin Neal too early in my opinion. Strong draft.
10. Mike Bellocq
Mike’s been wheeling and dealing for months. It all fell into place. He had the 6th pick. Brad takes Hunter maybe somewhat unexpectedly. Colt takes Henderson. That left Tet McMillian to fall into Mikes lap. I already went into detail about Tet in my portion. But Establish the Run had him ranked above Omarion Hampton as their #2 overall rookie dynasty player. They see him as an immediate alpha. I didn’t see what they saw, but still an exceptionally highly producing prospect and guess what? I’m wrong. A LOT. But even if he doesn’t become a London or Evans, Tee Higgins is a WR1 in FPPG, Sutton is on the up and finished WR15 last season once Bo Nix came in. These big handed, tall, jump ball specialists tend to stay in the league for a long time due to their ability to stretch defenses and are consistently targeted in the red zone. Mike will be hoping for Young to take the “F -IT T-Mac down there somewhere approach” to maximize his return on investment.
In the 2nd Round Mike had pick 2.10. He attempted to trade back but wind up staying put and selecting Bech. I really like Bech as a prospect. And the Raiders are on the up and up. Geno Smith is an upgrade, Jeanty is going to smash, Bowers, Meyers. I can see Bech carving out a role for himself immediately. He plays with heart, he’s a former LSU Tiger, what’s not to love? His prospect score came in at a 79.2 but I’m bullish and I love the pick.
Mike decides to go WR-WR in a “RB Draft”. Mike is #1 in WR according to KeepTradeCut Dynasty League Power Rankings. His decisions point to strengthening a strength via best player available draft strategy, but it was his trading with newcomer members Wes and JO that allowed him to lean into that strategy. Prior to the draft shipping his 2026 1st and 3rd for Kenneth Walker and a 2026 2nd. (I’ve already said my piece). And then sending Rhamondre Stevenson and a 4th to JO for Zach Charbonnet. Locking down the Seahawks backfield. I’ve stated previously that they brought in Kubiak as OC. Signed two full backs. Drafted a lineman in the first round and a tight end in the second round. Spoiler alert. THEY PLAN TO RUN THE ROCK. It’s not what people say, it’s what people do. Actions > Words.
Draft Grade: B+. Not getting a RB in this draft class and my assessment of Tet lowers this grade from an A to a B, but make no mistake. Mike’s team is in contender category.
11. Adam Bellocq
Adam traded with his brother in the offseason and acquired Heisman trophy winner Devonta Smith and Pick 1.10 for Zay Flowers and Pick 1.06. Mike scored Tet McMillian, the 8th overall pick in the NFL draft. Adam scored Colston Loveland, the 10th overall pick in the NFL draft. So Devonta Smith and Colston Loveland for Zay Flowers and Tet McMillian. There were also a late pick swap be that’s de minimus. ETR takes the Mike side and says it’s not even close, but they are very high on McMillian. LRQB has Loveland as a 94.3 prospect score. He has a chance to be what everybody thought Dalton Kincaid would be. He’s got comps to Pat Freiermuth, David Njoku, and Michael Mayer. I think it’s a great pick for Adams team. Hockenson has a new QB, Kincaid hasn’t lived up to his hype. Great pick. Loveland should take the LaPorta role for Ben Johnson’s offense. Cole Kmet is there but they can run some 12 personnel and be alright. Plus Loveland, DJ Moore, Luther Burden, and Rome Odunze allow the Bears to move people around. Loveland lined up in line, then pops out and runs a route from the slot. I can see the vision, just need to see what the target percentage and Caleb Williams play looks like to see if this pick smashes.
Adam didn’t pick again until 3.11. As you might remember he shipped a lot of picks to Dom in the Breece Hall deal last season. With the 3.11 he selected Tory Horton. And I have to be honest. This is a player that I was unaware existed until Adam selected him. His prospect score is a 55.8. He has a comp to Josh Reynolds and Dyami Brown, which isn’t nothing. Now Seattle shipped out DK Metcalf and added Cooper Kupp and MVS. But those are aging vets. I like the dart throw. I probably would’ve gone TeSlaa here but that’s because I own Tesla stock and a Tesla Model 3 and the name is cool.
At 4.07 Adam took a flier on Quinn Ewers since Tua is always hurt. Probably a throw away pick, but don’t hate it.
Draft Grade: D+. Zay Flowers is worth more than Devonta Smith in some dynasty circles. Now of course this is most likely due to age. Smith is WR2 to AJB on a team that was run heavy last season. Flowers is WR1 on a run-first team as well. Moving back 4 picks was the difference between Tet McMillian and Colston Loveland. Nothing wrong with Loveland. I liked Warren better, but he wasn’t there. Loveland is more of the Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid style Tight End. Those worry me a bit. But Top 10 pick, Ben Johnson’s first pick as a Head Coach, there’s a ton of potential there. He’s also young. These are draft grades, you wind up with Loveland, Horton and Ewers, three players I wasn’t targeting in the draft at all.
12. Cuz
Our beloved Champion. Coming up the rear just like he likes it. He gets to close out the first round and he surprised me a bit by selecting Cam Ward. Cuz already has Joe Burrow and Drake Maye rostered, but he elects to select another QB in Ward. Ward was the #1 Overall Pick. His spiral is beautiful. Qb values fluctuate in dynasty. Sometimes there are 4 starters available as free agents/waivers and other times someone has to start Gardner Minshew or Joe Flacco for a week due to injuries and barren free agents available. Cuz was able to sell high on Baker Mayfield to me last season once Dak got hurt and Richardson was benched. He acquired a 2026 2nd and a 2025 3rd, which is great for an older vet. I think this pick meant he sought dynasty value over roster need, which isn’t surprising coming off a championship run. Roster was obviously good enough last year right?
At 2.11 Cuz took Jaydon Blue, rookie selected by the Cowboys. His profile came in at a 74.5 with a top comp to Justice Hill. The Cowboys backfield is one knee Javonte Williams, bust Miles Sanders, and Blue. Absolutely worth a shot. At very least he could be change of pace back with Williams or Sanders handling first and second downs.
At 2.12 Cuz took Jaylen Noel. Rookie taken by the Texans. Texans are a bit of a mess eh? Offensive line was completely rebuilt and I’m not sure if it was for the better or not. Strouds shoulder is acting up. They lost Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Insert Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, and Noel. Noel has a prospect score of 76.8 with comps to Randall Cobb, Skyy Moore, and Duverny. So slot guy. With Kirk there he’ll most likely play behind Kirk and eventually take over the slot once they either move on from Kirk or if Kirk misses any time. Not a bad pick at all.
In later picks Cuz took Elic Ayomanor at 3.08, Tahj Brooks at 4.10. Gunnar Helm at 5.01. Solid selections.
Draft Grade: B. Solid draft. I was a little surprised of Cam Ward pick. Understand the dynasty player value angle, but with Tyreek, Hopkins, and Lockett entering their end of life in the NFL I think 1st round WR Matthew Golden should have been the pick here. But hey. If Ward turns into a Mahomes I’ll gladly admit I’m wrong and take my medicine.
Here are the drafters in order of grade:
Colt: A
Ollie: A
JO: A
Dan: A
Mike B: B+
Oscar: B+
Cuz: B
Wesley: B
Mike D: B-
Andy: C
Brad: C-
Adam: D+
Overall nobody did terrible. And I gave Adam a bad grade last season and then Bo Nix turned into Patrick Mahomes and I looked like a moron. That’s all folks. Looking to be another incredibly competitive season and I wish all of you the best of luck!
-Fantasy Football Brad
fantasyfootballbrad 