Author: bradleybertoniere

Week 6 Recap & Week 7 Preview

bradleybertoniere Fantasy Football , ,

Week 6 Recap:

Katon (1-5) 144.3 vs. Scotty (4-2) 150.2

A week after losing 157.7 to 155.2, Scotty bounces back scoring 150.2 and defeating Katon who put up his second-best game of the season and still takes the L. Scotty has had an incredible 302 points scored against him the past 2 weeks, for an average of 151 points against and he is 1-1. That’s damn impressive. If only Scotty’s fantasy defense was as good as his fantasy defense (NE D/ST). This week’s explosion was due to Stefon Diggs going off for 46.3 points, NE D/ST getting 28, and Brady showing up for a 24.8. Katon has now lost games that he’s scored 124.8 and 144.3. His lone win came in Week 3 when he put up 150.3. He got 33.9 from Matt Ryan, 26.2 from Zeke (his best game of this season), and 25 from Devonta Freeman (his best game of this season). It just wasn’t enough and Katon finds himself in a huge hole if he wants to make the playoffs.

JD (5-1) 66 vs. Kenny (4-2) 75.8

Kenny lost in Week 5 despite putting up a respectable 127.6 and in Week 6 he gets a win against the last undefeated team by putting up 75.8. Isn’t fantasy football awesome? Kenny entered MNF down 7.3 points with Kenny Golladay left to play. Golladay caught a 66 yard pass on a flea flicker to start the game and he wind up being Kenny’s top scorer with 17.1 points. JD’s 5-0 start ends with a whimper and a tear.

Jen (1-5) 129.1 vs. Chase (1-5) 92.9

Chase traded Odell for 3 new starters, but they combined for 24.6 points as Jen gets her first win of the season. Odell finished the week with 15.5 for Moose. This is a tough fall for Chase. I know what this feeling is like to go from being in 4 Super Bowls in 5 seasons to finishing dead last in 2018. But my regression happened slowly over time. Chase’s has been immediate. Last season through 6 weeks Chase was 6-0 scoring 857.2 points for an average of 142.9 points per game. This season through 6 weeks Chase is 1-5 scoring 583.3 points for an average of 97.2 points per game. Jen was led by Scary Terry McLaurin’s 26.6 and Chris “Brad shouldn’t have traded” Carson with 26.5. Congrats to Jen for joining the Win column!

Moose (5-1) 123.5 vs. Trey (3-3) 108.3

Moose has his worst game of the season to date, but still scores the 5th most points in the league in Week 6 to take down Trey. Big story for Moose was Lamar Jackson going off for 33.6 points including a 19-152-1 rushing stat line. Nick Chubb continues to impress and earn his 1st round draft pick with 28.9 points and new acquisition Odell got 15.5. Scary moment for Moose was Amari Cooper exited the Jets game early due to a quad issue. Seems like he’s bruised up and listed as “day-to-day “Trey finally got production out of Curtis Samuel, who put up 21.4 and scored a pair of touchdowns. But with so many people on bye week he couldn’t keep up with the league’s top scorer through 6 weeks.

Mike (2-4) 84.5 vs. Joe (4-2) 96.1

Joe was led by Austin Hooper’s 23.9 and CMC’s 19.3. Mike got a rock solid 29.4 from Deshaun Watson, but 7 out of his 9 players scored in single digits. Mike has just hasn’t been able to get it all together this season.

Brad (4-2) 144.4 vs. Tommy (2-4) 91.5

Brad followed up his 188-point Week 5 explosion with a solid 144.4-point outing, good for 2nd highest scorer of the week. Brad got 28.9 from Fantasy Football’s #1 Fantasy Qb after 6 weeks, Russell Wilson, 26.7 from James Conner who scored a pair of touchdowns against the Chargers, and a combined 44.1 from #1 Fantasy Wideout of 2019 so far Chris Godwin and 2018 #1 Wideout Tyreek Hill. Brad could have scored a lot more, but Will Fuller couldn’t haul in any of his 3 deep touchdown targets thrown his way. Tommy got a respectable 23.5 from Carson Wentz, but 5 players scored in single digits and he was really hurt by Gurley’s injury and Hilton’s bye week. He wind up starting 3 Titans against the Broncos and they combined for a paltry 11.6 fantasy points. With this win, Brad has matched his win total from 2018 where he went 4-9 in the regular season and 0-3 in the Bottom Bowl.

Week 7 Preview:

***Game of the Week***

Moose (5-1) vs. JD (5-1)

The battle of the best records hits us in Week 6. On the line? A 6th win and virtual playoff spot lock. Although their records are even, and Moose comes in averaging 138.3 he will be extremely bit by the bye-week bug this week. Moose will be short Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham Jr, DJ Moore, and starting kicker Joey Slye. In addition, Amari Cooper is questionable due to the Quad issue. JD has a wideout injury problem of his own, with first round pick Davante Adams. It certainly appeared the Packers desperately need him, but not sure if that toe is going to cooperate or not. JD has Dak against Philly’s Pass Funnell Defense. Good at stopping the run, horrible at defending the pass. Ingram is @ Seattle, who just gave up 28.9 fantasy points to Nick Chubb. JD also has Juju and his kicker on a bye week, so he’ll be scrambling for a flex play as well. JD’s Bills D/ST against Miami might be his best player. JD looks favored but looks to be closer than one might think.

Joe (4-2) vs. Kenny (4-2)

Another battle between winning teams so far. Kenny catches Joe on a huge bye week where he’ll be without #1 Fantasy Rb Christian McCaffrey and #2 Fantasy D/ST in Panthers D/ST. Joe’s strength is his peripherals where he’ll feature #1 Fantasy Tight End Austin Hooper, #3 D/ST 49ers against the paltry Redskins (but travelling coast to coast), and #3 Kicker Greg Zuerlein. He’s starting Duke Johnson and Dede Westbrook, so there’s that. Kenny’s team is actually solid. He has 2 Top 20 Rb’s in Philip Lindsay and Jordan Howard. He has 2 Top 20 Wr’s in Adam Thielen and Kenny Golladay. #7 Tight End Zach Ertz @ Dallas. He’ll be without Jarvis Landry due to bye week. ESPN opens this game up with Kenny being a 2.4-point favorite but going to be a great game.

Keeping up the games featuring teams with the same records:

Chase (1-5) vs. Katon (1-5)

Two 2018 playoff teams are battling it out to survive in Week 7. The loser will drop to 1-6 and pretty much solidify a Bottom Bowl ticket. Chase gets Patrick Mahomes @ Denver on a short week. Mahomes lost the duel against Watson last week. There was one play that I think summarized that matchup. Mahomes was rushed, attempted to escape, but looked slow and hobbled by that ankle injury. Watson was healthy and ready to run, thus won the match. Gallup and Tate have good matchups for Chase, but keep in mind Arizona’s secondary will get a boost from the return of lock down corner, Patrick Peterson. Luckily, Tate operates in the slot and should avoid the shadow coverage. Katon has Matt “Throwing for 300+ every week” Ryan against the Rams who lost Aqib Talib to IR. Without Talib their defense has been suspect, setting up Falcons pass catchers to have a big week. (This includes Chase’s Julio Jones). Katon has Zeke against Philly’s solid ass run defense. Gordon @ Tennessee looks gross. Freeman faces that same Rams team. I think Katon is favored but should be a good game.

Tommy (2-4) vs. Scotty (4-2)

Scotty is coming off back to back shootouts and is looking to stay hot against a struggling Tommy team. Tommy has averaged 94.6 the last two weeks while averaging 143.3 against him. Scotty has averaged 152.7 over the past two weeks. Yikes. I don’t think NE D/ST will get their average 22 points against a revitalized Jets team with Sam Darnold back at the helm. But Tommy’s team lacks play makers and I don’t think they can handle Scotty’s Trio of Top 10 Running Backs.

Mike (2-4) vs. Brad (4-2)

Brad has scored an average of 166.6 points over the last two weeks. Mike has averaged 112.1 in that span. He has been up and down the past four weeks scoring 133.4-66.7-139.7-84.5. He’ll hope to continue that trend and get 130+ again this week. To do that he’ll need Deshaun Watson to stay hot at Indianapolis who is getting back star linebacker Darrius Leonard on defense. He has Joe Mixon vs. Jackonsville, James White @ NYJ, Mike Thomas @ Chicago, and DJ Chark Jr. @ Cincy who won’t have their two starting cornerbacks this week. Mike’s strength is his 3 Top 15 Wide Receivers. Brad has 2 Top 15 but won’t have #1 Fantasy Wideout Chris Godwin this week due to byes. He’s also short James Conner, so he’ll rely on Miles Sanders at Dallas. Sanders has been catching more passes lately due to injuries to Darren Sproles and Corey Clement. We’ll see if he can hold down the Rb2 spot for Brad. Brad is hoping to get Evan Engram back in a smash spot against a Cardinals Defense that has given up the following stat lines to tight ends this season: 7-146-1, 10-127-2, 6-75-2, 9-83-1, 4-30-0, and 10-138-1. That’s an average of 21.6 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. If he can’t go due to MCL sprain, then Brad will be shooting darts on the waiver wire for the second week in a row.

Jen (1-5) vs. Trey (3-3)

Despite Trey having two more wins than Jen, he has only scored 14.9 more points than her, but a whopping 188.7 less points have been scored against him. Enter this matchup and Trey will have his second week in a row missing a lot of players to byes, this time at the wideout position. He’ll be missing Mike Evans and Curtis Samuel. He gets Josh Jacobs and Marlon Mack back and Hopkins is due for a big game. Jen has been looking like she won the trade with Brad as Chris Carson has gone for 19.1-21.7-26.5 since the trade. It evens out her team and her team is actually better than her 1-5 record. Carson-DJ-Ridley-McLaurin-Kittle is a solid nucleus for her. She may not make the playoffs, but she can definitely play spoiler.

Good Luck This Week!

Week 5 Recap & Week 6 Preview

bradleybertoniere Fantasy Football , ,

Week 5 Recap

Joe (3-2) 157.7 vs. Scotty (3-2) 155.2

In miraculous fashion, Joe comes back on MNF with an incredible 20-point performance from 49ers D/ST. Scotty entered MNF up 17.5 points with Joe just having a defense left. But if there is any person in the league to not chalk that up to an easy victory it would be Scotty, who has NE D/ST that is averaging 20.8 points per game. But just incredible game guys. This has been the game of the year so far and unfortunately all anyone could talk about in the group message was Brad’s ki… you know what I’ll get to that later. This was CMC’s 49.1 vs. Aaron Jones 48. Perhaps even crazier of a stat is the fact that Scotty got 0 from Sammy Watkins. So he got 155.2 with 8 players…

Brad (3-2) 187.7 vs. Kenny (3-2) 127.6

Going into Week 5 Kenny had one of the lowest Points Against at 337.6 or 84.4 points per game. After this week that average increases to 105.1 per game. This was Kenny’s best scoring game of the season. His previous high score was 103 points in Week 4. Despite scoring his highest, he loses by 60.1 points. This explosion was due in large part to Will Fuller, who Brad wind up started thinking Atlanta-Houston could be a shootout and that Robby Anderson wasn’t valid due to Darnold being out. ESPN wanted me to start Miles Sanders over Fuller, and I’m glad I went in a different direction. My decision was rewarded with one of the best performances in our league’s history. Fuller gets 50.3, Brad gets 187.7. The trio of Godwin, Robinson, and Fuller combined for 105.1 fantasy points enough to beat Trey, Chase, Katon, or Tommy this week. Brad’s 187.7 was more than the combined score of Trey and Chase’s matchup, which was 175.7. This tremendous performance was overshadowed a bit by Robbie Gould on MNF. Brad had a shot to beat his previous record of 191.9 if Gould could score 10 fantasy points. He missed 3 field goals and the record stands. What is it with this league and kicker drama?

Jen (0-5) 125.7 vs. Mike (2-3) 139.7

Like Kenny, Jen had her best game of the season and still couldn’t get it done. She had some solid performances from Chris Carson (21.7) and George Kittle (17.2), but Mike had an answer for that in the names of Deshaun Watson (46.7) and Michael Thomas (37.6). It’s a tough loss for Jen, who appears to already be eliminated from the playoffs. But her lineup is coming along, and I have no doubt she’ll be competitive in games moving forward, might be able to even play spoiler. And who knows. There are still 8 games left. Maybe she gets a winning streak going. Never say never.

Trey (3-2) 99.2 vs. Chase (1-4) 76.5

Gross. Trey had 30.7% of his points come from Josh Jacobs against the Bears in London. He also got a solid 19 from Marlon Mack who had an incredible run against the Chiefs where he jump-cut 3 or 4 times in a row and broke off for a big gain. It was crazy… Chase floundered despite Sony Michel getting his season best 19.5 as Mahomes came down to Earth with a just-okay 21.5 points. Trey pulls off his second win in a row scoring between 99-108.5. A win is a win, am I right?

JD (5-0) 114.7 vs. Katon (1-4) 92.8

Well well well. It appears Katon in fact, did NOT beat the shit out of JD. Instead JD beat up on Katon. This was due in large part from Dak playing from behind and racking up the yardage to the tune of 28.1 points and Tyler Boyd catching a long bomb to get his total up to 25.3. Katon watched a Packers defense that got shredded by Jordan Howard look decent against Zeke, who only got 15.9. Katon had 6 players score 6.8 or less and Matt Ryan’s 34.9 wasn’t enough to carry the weight. Katon will need Melvin Gordon to get going if his team is going to be able to compete during the bye weeks and make it into the playoffs.

Moose (4-1) 142.1 vs. Tommy (2-3) 97.7

Moose has taken the Chase role from 2018, with just consistent dominance over his opponents. Moose got 40 from Amari Cooper and 36 from Eagles D/ST, which combined equaled 77.8% of Tommy’s total score. Moose has now had games of 154.2-141.5-130.8-137.7-142.1 for an average of 141.3 points per game. Chase, who has scored the least amount this season is averaging… 98.1. Tommy got 23.2 from Julian Edelman, 16.9 from Gurley who had a pair of touchdowns against the Seahawks on TNF, and 13.8 from Derrick Henry. Tommy’s peripherals combined for 15 points, which was no match for Moose’s considering the D/ST got 36.

Week 6 Preview:

*Breaking News* Moose trades Chase Matt Breida, Mark Andrews, and Michael Gallup for Odell Beckham Jr, Rex Burkhead, and OJ Howard.

JD (5-0) vs. Kenny (3-2)

JD’s undefeated season gets hit with the bye week bug this week as he’ll be without his starting Tight End, D/ST, and some flex options. He’ll be scouring the waiver wire to complete his starting lineup. Kenny looks all set on his end, but with some less than favorable matchups. JD’s best play is Mark Ingram vs. Cincinnati. He’s going to eat. Kenny’s best play is Adam Thielen vs. Philly’s Defense. JD is averaging 113.4 and Kenny is averaging 102.1, but JD’s Darren Waller has been averaging 10.9. Is it enough for Kenny to hand JD his first loss of the season? Or will Dizzle move on to a virtual lock of a playoff spot, by moving to 6-0? Should be a great game.

Trey (3-2) vs. Moose (4-1)

Trey enters Week 6 with two wins despite scoring 108.5 or less to face a Moose team that is averaging 141.3 points per game. Trey will have his Rb1, Rb2, Rb3, Rb7, and Wr4 on bye this week. Moose traded away three of his bench players for Odell Beckham Jr’s playmaking ability. Trey has gotten lucky the past two weeks, but not sure if that luck is sustainable. Moose features #4 Qb Lamar Jackson, #3 Rb Austin Ekeler, #5 Rb Nick Chubb, #2 Wr Amari Cooper and #4 Tight End Travis Kelce. Trey will have #5 Tight End Will Dissly and #10 Wr Mike Evans squaring off against Carolina’s cornerback Bradberry who held Evans to a 4-61 line in Week 2. #21 Wr Hopkins is in a prime spot to bounce back in a potential shootout against the Chefs. Trey has some intriguing matchups, but not sure if he can hang with Moose.

Brad (3-2) vs. Tommy (2-3)

Brad enters this week listening to Roses by Outkast thinking his shit doesn’t stink after a Week 5 explosion. Brad may have blew his load too early (again) and now hobbles into a capable Tommy team led by his Trio of Running backs. Brad is looking to be without Fantasy’s #1 Tight End and his backup Tight End Chris Herndon, who as I’m writing this is not practicing due to a hamstring injury. Despite this Brad features #2 Fantasy Qb Russell Wilson @ Cleveland, #2 Fantasy Rb Dalvin Cook against Philly’s incredible run-stopping defense, #1 Wr Chris Godwin facing Carolina (8-121-1 stat line in first meeting), #8 Fantasy Wr Will Fuller. That’s right. He moved up from #66 to #8 thanks to last week’s 50-point outing and not gets a potential shootout against the Chiefs. Tommy will have Wentz @ Min, #7 Rb Henry @ Denver (remember Fournette had a 225-yard rushing game against Denver who is completely depleted on defense from injuries), Le’Veon Bell’s floor and ceiling should increase with Sam Darnold coming back. Tommy will be without TY Hilton due to bye week and Brad is hoping to get 2018 #1 Fantasy Wr Tyreek Hill back from his shoulder/chest frame injury. Difference could be Tommy’s Olsen vs. whatever Tight End Brad digs up as Olsen posted a 6 catch 110-yard performance against Tampa in Week 2. Should be a good game. Let us not forget that since Brad defeated Tommy in Super Bowl #3 by 1 point, Tommy has dominated this series. He’s won 7 of the last 9 or 78%. The Fantasy Gods have committed to making that heart-breaking SB loss up to Tommy, but continually beating the shit out of Brad every year.

Katon (1-4) vs. Scotty (3-2)

Scotty will be featuring 4 Top 10 Fantasy Running Backs this week, having #9 Kamara (16.2 avg), #7 Fournette (17.1 avg), #4 Aaron Jones (21.4 avg), and #5 NE D/ST (20.8 avg). Of course, New England gets a Giant’s team that is eviscerated by injuries and are looking to be without their top Rb (Barkley, Wr (Shepherd) and Tight End (Engram). What in the actual fuck is up with NE’s schedule? Katon disappointed last week in taking down undefeated JD and is searching for answers after dropping Michael Gallup for a kicker. Katon could’ve used Gallup last week as Keenan Allen and Robert Woods underwhelmed. He does have #6 Fantasy Qb Matt Ryan going up against Arizona’s secondary who will be without Patrick Peterson for one more week. Ryan has had 300+ yards passing in every game this season and has had double digit touchdowns in 4/5 games. Zeke will be facing a Jet’s Defense who will still be without CJ Mosley. Dallas is coming off an embarrassing ass whooping at home and now get a rusty Sam Darnold. Katon needs Melvin Gordon to be Melvin Gordon but facing Pittsburgh who will try to slow down the game with their third string Qb doesn’t look too promising. His Bears D/ST is out on a bye.

Mike (2-3) vs. Joe (3-2)

Joe has been smashing lately having absolutely nailed his first-round pick. Joe had pick #4 and looked destined to get Zeke or DJ when Katon surprisingly took Zeke at #3 after Barkley and Kamara went 1 and 2. Joe has been riding White LaDainian Tomlinson all season and is #1 Fantasy Rb. A complete monster. Tampa Bay shut CMC down in Week 2 of this season but would be surprised if they are able to contain him twice. Kerryon Johnson is in a nice spot for Joe against a below-average run defense in Green Bay on MNF. Cooper Kupp gets San Fran, who’s been surpassingly good this year, specifically in the trenches, which is where the Rams have underperformed. Rams play better at home and Kupp’s consistency has locked him in as a sure-fire starter each week. Josh Gordon is over due for a big game for Joe and Joe has continued his kicker-whispering ways with #1 Fantasy Kicker Greg Zuerlein. Mike is coming off a win in the bottom bowl over Jen. This is due to his #3 Fantasy Qb Deshaun Watson, who lit up the Falcons and is looking for a repeat performance in a shootout against Kansas City. Mike has 3 Top 12 Wideouts in #4 Mike Thomas, #5 DJ Chark Doo-doo-da-doo-doo-doo, and #12 Tyler Lockett. If Mike wants to hang with the big boys, he needs to get more production out of Joe Mixon (#32 Rb) and James White (#34 Rb).

Jen (0-5) vs. Chase (1-4)

Oh boy… Jen will be without Jacoby Brissett and Frank Gore this week due to bye week. David Johnson is banged up with a back injury adding to her long list of injuries this season. Chris Carson has been very effective for her and may be the best player on her team after shipping away Tyreek Hill for points now. Kittle finally got in the end zone last week and will continue to produce for her. Ridley has a favorable matchup against Arizona. Chase will feature a brand-new team (cue Aladdin’s brand-new world song in background while reading this). He’ll have #1 Fantasy Qb Patrick Mahomes, #7 Fantasy Wr Julio Jones, then new comers #18 Rb Matt Breida, #3 Tight End Mark Andrews, and #32 Wr Michael Gallup. Keep in mind Gallup missed a couple weeks, he’s averaging 18 points per game, which would make him Fantasy’s Wr#7 if he stayed on that pace through all 5 weeks. This was a big trade that makes Chase much better and more competitive right now. Unfortunate timing for Jen, who is looking down the barrel of an 0-6 start.

Good Luck This Week!

-Commish

Week 4 Recap & Week 5 Preview

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Week 4 Recap:

JD (4-0) 70.9 vs. Mike (1-3) 66.7

This turned out to be the game of the week by a margin of 4.2 points. Just goes to show you, you’d rather be lucky than good. But ideally, you’re both. JD had 25 from Davante Adams before he got injured and the rest of his team scored 8.1 or less. Mike actually had two players in double digits, with Michael Thomas getting 13.1 and Deshaun Watson getting a humbling 11.6. Absolutely disgusting and you both deserved to lose.

Moose (3-1) 137.7 vs. Joe (2-2) 144.2

Well you can’t win them all. But scoring 137.7 you should win most. Moose has now averaged 141 points per game through 4 weeks. Joe comes out of nowhere to beat Chase and Moose in back to back weeks. He’s led by Cooper Kupp with 24.5 and Christian McCaffrey with 27.9. Solid outings from Kerryon Johnson with 17.5 and Austin Hooper just kept catching them for a 9 catch- 130 yards yard performance vs. Tennessee Defense. Moose got Lamar Jackson’s 24.4, a monster 42.5 from Nick Chubb, 26.2 from #3 Fantasy Rb Austin Ekeler, but his wideouts disappointed combining for only 12.4 points. Biggest difference in this matchup was Joe’s 15 points from his Defense to Moose’s 0 as Green Bay’s defense looked like swiss cheese to Philly’s Jordan Howard.

Brad (2-2) 96.1 vs. Trey (2-2) 108.5

Let this game provide lessons to us all. Lesson #1 Start Your Studs (If They Are Active). Lesson #2 Know Who Your Studs Are.  Lesson #3 Be Consistent. Brad lost because he misinterpreted an injury status, benched a Stud that he didn’t respect like a stud, and got cute by playing matchup solely over talent. Trey got 30.4 on TNF from Aaron Rodgers, 18.5 from the other Bucs receiver, Mike Evans, and got a solid 35.5 from his peripherals. Chris Godwin’s stats through 4 weeks: Mike Evans stats through 4 weeks: Godwin- 26-386-4 on 33 targets, Evans- 18-368-4 on 35 targets. Godwin has outscored Evans ¾ weeks. And he will be in my starting lineup every single fucking week from here on out… (pending injury and bye week of course).

Scotty (3-1) 123.4 vs. Jen (0-4) 98.6

Jen remains beaten despite getting a solid 19.1 from Chris Carson who she acquired via trade from Brad this week. Carson was credited for 21 broken tackles, which is the most ever recorded in a single game, since people have been tracking broken tackles. Jen getting returns on her investments. Of course, as good as that move was from a management stand point, she started a player that was inactive. This is hugely egregious, and you just hate to see it. Unless of course, you’re Scotty who I’m sure loved to see it. Scotty’s kicker outscored his Qb 4-3.7, but Leonard Fournette’s 225-yard rushing explosion helped lead the way. His 30.3 fantasy points combined with Courtland Sutton’s 20.6 and NE D/ST’s 26 was enough to get the job done. NE D/ST’s 89 fantasy points through 4 weeks would have them ranked as Rb #4, Wr#1, and Qb#5. That’s right. A Defense and Special Teams unit has outscored every single wide receiver in fantasy points through 4 weeks of the season. Their schedule over the next 4 weeks is @ Washington (Keenum? Haskins? McCoy?), NYG (Rookie Daniel Jones), @ NYJ, and Cleveland (Who doesn’t have an offensive line). Jesus Scotty. That’s all I have to say. Jesus…

Kenny (3-1) 103 vs. Chase (1-3) 71.3

The old #1 Overall Pick vs. #12 Overall Pick. First vs. Last. It’s not surprising that the team with the top draft pick, thus better drafting position won this matchup. What IS surprising is that he won without the #1 overall pick, Saquon Barkley. His replacement, who Kenny smartly had for just this occasion, scored 24.2. Golladay scored 20.7 and Kenny got 31.3 from his peripherals. Chase got solid production out of Mahomes with 21 and LeSean McCoy got 15.7, but 7 players scored 6.9 or less. Including only 14.5 from his 3 peripherals. Chase would love more consistency from Odell and Julio right now.

Katon (1-3) 109.4 vs. Tommy (2-2) 131.3

Katon is definitely the best 1-3 team. He got 24.6 from Robert Woods, who was due. 23.4 from Philip Rivers and 18 from Bears D/ST. Keenan Allen disappointed with 6.8 vs. Miami and even his kicker was missing extra points. Tommy got a solid 21.8 from *checks notes* Todd Gurley, 19.7 from Carson Wentz, then he started Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, and Corey Davis from the Titans who combined for 55.9 against Atlanta. 14 from Wil Lutz helps.

Week 5 Preview:

Battle of the Bad!

Jen (0-4) vs. Mike (1-3)

Something’s got to give! Jen is averaging 93.2 points per game, Mike is averaging a slightly better 96.7. Both Qb’s have juicy matchups with Jen getting Brissett @ KC on SNF and Mike gets Deshaun Watson vs. Atlanta. Both could be in shootouts. Jen’s David Johnson gets @ Cincy on a short week. Cincinnati is giving up an average of 34.4 fantasy points to opposing running backs, making DJ a Top 10 play and Chase Edmunds an intriguing flex play. (not for Jen). Jen gets Kittle back post bye vs. Cleveland and Mike gets Mike Thomas vs. Tampa Bay. Both teams will have a key player featured on Thursday Night Football, Jen having Chris Carson vs. the Rams and Mike having Tyler Lockett vs. the Rams. Who will win?!

Trey (2-2) vs. Chase (1-3)

Chase has to face the ghost of season past, squaring off against Aaron Rodgers, who beat him in Super Bowl 10. Rodgers will be @ Dallas. Trey has 2 Top 20 Rb’s in Jacobs and Mack. Jacobs faces Chicago defense. And Mack is banged up after exiting Week 4’s contest early with an ankle injury. A surprise for Trey has been Seahawks Tight End Will Dissly who is now ranked 5th amongst fantasy tight ends and has scored a touchdown in 3 straight weeks and has 4 in 4 games. Wilson had this to say about Will Dissly, “We go to Bible study together, we talk, we’re connected pretty good, and I just really admire him.” No better way to look for a tight end then see the one praising Jesus with the Quarterback. Speaking of needing Jesus, let’s look at Chase’s team. Mahomes faces Indy and is #1 Fantasy Qb as he should be. Sony Michel has 0 broken tackles this season. Julio faces Houston, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is @ Pittsburgh, and Odell Beckham Jr. has a MNF game against a well-rested and surprisingly effective 49ers defense. They’ve had 2 weeks to prepare for the Browns terrible offensive line. Let’s see if Odell and MNF Odell once again.

Joe (2-2) vs. Scotty (3-1)

Joe coming off a big win over the best team in the league, while Scotty waltzes in after facing the worst team in the league. Joe is led by #1 Fantasy Rb Christian McCaffrey, #2 Fantasy Wr Cooper Kupp, #3 TE Austin Hooper. Scotty has 3 Top 11 Running backs in 7. Kamara, 10. Fournette, and 11. Aaron Jones. Of course, the biggest difference maker for Scotty has been Pat’s D/ST. If you include them Scotty is starting 4 Running Backs in the Top 11 at the position. Is Scotty for real at 3-1? Or will Joe bring them both to 3-2 after this week?

Moose (3-1) vs. Tommy (2-2)

Moose has #2 Qb Lamar Jackson, #3 Rb Austin Ekeler, #4 Rb Nick Chubb (#5 if you include Pats D/ST), #8 Wr Amari Cooper, #4 Tight End Travis Kelce. Kelce has been slacking. He plays the Colts this week, think he’s due for a 12-146-2 stat line. Tommy has #6 Qb Carson Wentz, #6 Rb Derrick Henry and #3 Kicker Wil Lutz. You see the difference? Moose wins.

JD (4-0) vs. Katon (1-3)

Looking at these teams you would think their records would be swapped, but let’s dig in. JD has #4 Fantasy Qb Dak Prescott against Green Bay at home. #5 Fantasy Running back Mark Ingram @ Pit, and #5 Tight End Darren Waller vs. Chicago. Davante Adams is listed as questionable, but I doubt he plays as he battles the painful turf toe. Katon has whew… #5 Fantasy Qb Matt Ryan, #8 Fantasy Rb Ezekiel Elliot facing a Green Bay running defense that has been fleeced by Dalvin Cook, destroyed by Jordan Howard, ram shackled by Phillip Lindsay. Oh, and one more thing… Zeke is due. Katon gets Melvin “Fucking” Gordon back against a Denver defense that just gave up 225 yards rushing to Leonard Fournette. He has #1 Fantasy Wideout Keenan Allen in that same Denver matchup, and Bears D/ST face Oakland in London. Katon is going to beat the living shit out of JD this week and hand JD his first loss of the season. BEAT… THE…LIVING…SHIT… out of him. It’s going to be worse than Louisiana’s dominance over Texas so far this season 😉

Brad (2-2) vs. Kenny (3-1)

Oh yeah, I have a team too. The worst part of my team is the manager. So that’s both a good thing and a bad thing. The good thing is I have one of the Top 5 teams in the league. The bad thing is my own self-sabotage might cost me a playoff spot. I feature #3 Fantasy Qb Russell Wilson, #2 Fantasy Rb Dalvin Cook, #2 Fantasy Wideout Chris Godwin, and #1 Fantasy Tight End Evan Engram. Matchups aren’t bad, aren’t good. Kenny has Barkley out due to that high ankle sprain and Kenny Golladay is out due to bye week. He’s looking at starting Jordan Howard in the flex vs. the Jets. He’ll have Andy Dalton vs. Arizona, Wayne Gallman vs. Minnesota, and Phillip Lindsay vs. the Chargers in LA. Adam Thielen came out and said they need to pass the ball better. Well here is their chance facing a Giants team that’s ranked 29th against fantasy wideouts. Should be a good game but look for Brad to start at the very least, the wrong flex.

Thanks and Good Luck This Week!

-Commish

 

Week 3 Recap & Week 4 Preview

bradleybertoniere Fantasy Football, NFL

King Mustafa (3-0) 130.8 vs. Brad (2-1) 100.2

Amari Cooper lead Moose’s team with 23.2 points.  Lamar Jackson had to play against an actual defense and scored 21.2 points.  Moose’s outbidding Brad for Packers D/ST proved to be highly effective as they scored 17 against Joe Flacco’s Broncos.  Brad got 24.9 from Dalvin Cook and 24.7 from Evan Engram, but started the wrong Qb as Russell Wilson went off on his bench.  Winston decided to target Mike Evans early and often, leaving Chris Godwin as an afterthought and Brad had 6 players in single digits.

Trey (1-2) 130.3 vs. Mike (1-2) 133.5

What turned out to be the best game of the week was a close one!  Trey got an incredible 43.2 from Mike Evans to the tune of 8 catches, 190 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Marlon Mack was serviceable with 15.6 points and free agent acquisition Will Dissly continued to impress with 14.6.  Mike was lead by Deshaun Watson’s and Tyler Lockett’s 28.8 points each.  Joe Mixon showed up for Mike with his best game of the season, scoring 16.3 points against a formidable Bills Defense.  Bitter loss for Trey, potential season-saving win for Mike.

Chase (1-2) 116.6 vs. Joe (1-2) 141.2

Chase seemed to have a shot going into SNF with Odell Beckham Jr. squaring off against Cooper Kupp and Greg Zuerlein.  Patrick Mahomes “regression” from 50 touchdowns has him on pace for 6,384 yards and 58 touchdowns through 3 weeks of the NFL season.  He scored a cool 30.7 for Chase.  Julio continued to Julio with 25.  O.J. Howard showed up for 7.8 fantasy points.  Joe was lead by Jameis Winston with 28.5, Christian McCaffrey’s 31 (who ripped off a 76 yard touchdown run), and Cooper Kupp’s 29.6.  Kupp looks fully recovered from the ACL tear that ended his 2018 season.  Shouldn’t have come across as a surprise considering the Browns Defense was without their starting SS, FS, CB, and LB.  Joe gets his first win of the season.

Kenny (2-1) 90.4 vs. Scotty (2-1) 113.7

Kenny didn’t just lose this game against Scotty, he lost #1 Overall Pick Saquon Barkley for 4-8 weeks due to a high ankle sprain.  This absolutely sucks as Barkley is a lot of fun to watch and things were looking for the G-Men with Daniel Jones taking over.  He got a surprising 26.6 from Phillip Lindsay who scored a pair of touchdowns and 18.8 from Adam Thielen.  Scotty was led by an inspirational performance from Alvin Kamara who scored 31.7 fantasy points.  Brady got 23.1 and #1 Patriots D/ST got 15.

Katon (1-2) 150.3 vs. Jen (0-3) 68.7

At one point in this match it looked like Katon had a chance to beat Jen by 100 points.  Keenan Allen went off for 38.8, Chicago D/ST got 25 and Matt Ryan got 25.3 for Katon.  Jen’s highest scorer was “Scary” Terry McLaurin with 15.4.  7 players scored in single digits.  But not sure what we expect after she lost her 2nd, 5th, 6th and 14th round picks to injury so far.

JD (3-0) 136.8 vs. Tommy (1-2) 115.3

Tommy was in trouble since TNF when Henry put up a modest 11 points.  Greg Olsen led his team in scoring with 21.9 points.  Hilton and Edelman both got knocked out of their games, but put up serviceable 15 and 15.7 fantasy points, respectively, before exited their contests.  JD moved to 3-0 on the season with 22.5 from Dak Prescott, 36.1 from Mark Ingram who is Rb#3 to start the year, and 22.3 from Darren Waller acquired via the 3-way trade.  Had this been a kicker bowl it would have been an epic 1-2 final score with Tommy taking it.

Week 4 Preview

***Game of the Week***

JD (3-0) vs. Mike (1-2)

JD and Moose are the only undefeated teams remaining, but JD will be tested this week by Mike’s group.  Jd has Dak Prescott facing the Saints in New Orleans on SNF.  Saints have given up rushing touchdowns to Watson, Goff, and 2 to Russell Wilson last week.  Prescott is a must start in this one.  Mike features Deshaun Watson going up against Carolina.  Kyle Allen is starting for Carolina, so should be a competitive game.  Mark Ingram faces Cleveland for JD and #5 TE Darren Waller faces Indianapolis.  Mike has Justin Jackson vs. Miami, Michael Thomas against Dallas, and Tyler Lockett vs. Arizona’s lack of a secondary that just got torched by Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore.  Brandin Cooks faces TB who gave up a lot of points to Sterling Shepherd and Evan Engram last week.  This game will come down to Monday Night Football with JD having JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyler Boyd and Mike will have Joe Mixon and Vance McDonald.  I just feel bad that these two will be glued to their televisions and having to listen to Booger McFarland say the stupidest shit imaginable.  Look for JD to come out swinging with Davante Adams against Philly on TNF.

King Mustafa (3-0) vs. Joe (1-2)

Both teams coming off big wins in Week 3 setting up a nice Week 4 matchup.  Lamar Jackson faces Cleveland, who has a good pass rush, but has a myriad of injuries to their secondary.  Nick Chubb faces Baltimore in that same game who just surrendered a pair of touchdowns to LeSean McCoy last week.  Amari Cooper will be matched up against Marshon Lattimore on SNF at the Dome.  Austin Ekeler is in a smash spot @ Miami.  Packers D/ST on TNF should continue to have success against a Philly team minus a lot of weapons.  Joe will have someone at Quarterback versus whoever they play.  Christian McCaffrey is @ Houston.  Cooper Kupp, Joe’s hero and namesake faces Tampa Bay’s defense who just got torched by Danny Dimes.  From Josh Gordon down this lineup is gross and Moose should win.

Scotty (2-1) vs. Jen (0-3)

It doesn’t look good John.  It does. Not. Look. Good.  Jen is predicted a paltry 80.2 points and George Kittle has his bye week.  Scotty has Kamara vs. Dallas on SNF and Aaron Jones vs. Philly on TNF.  Spread out his players like butter on toast.  Mhmmmmm.

Brad (2-1) vs. Trey (1-2)

Brad coming off his worst game of the season vs. Trey coming off his best, despite him not coming away with the W.  Brad will have Russell Wilson @ Arizona, #1 Fantasy Rb Dalvin Cook against a tough Bears D/ST, #1 Fantasy TE Evan Engram vs. Washington.  Trey has A-Rod on TNF, Marlon Mack and Josh Jacobs facing one another, DeAndre Hopkins against Carolina, and Will Dissly @ Arizona.  Brad is hoping James Conner can prove to be a first round pick this week against a Bengals Defense that has been gouged by the run every week.  Brad will have to wait until MNF to see if that happens.  The real story of this matchup is Chris Godwin vs. Mike Evans.  Godwin outscored Evans in Weeks 1 and 2, but Evans exploded last week, leading to Evans being ranked 9th fantasy wideout and Godwin being ranked 21st.  They face a tough Rams Defense led by Wade Phillips.  The Bruce Arians offensive mind vs. the Wade Phillips defensive mind will be an good watch this weekend.

Kenny (2-1) vs. Chase (1-2)

K-Dub loses Saquon, which definitely is a huge hit for his squad.  Despite me giving him crap for having Wayne Gallman on his bench, Kenny proves the wiser as Daniel Jones makes Gallman relevant.  Lindsay will hope to have a repeat performance vs. Jacksonville.  Kenny Golladay faces KC.  Detroit is a slow-paced team and KC is a fast-paced team, so it’ll be interesting to see if the game slows down or if Detroit speeds up.  Kenny has two good defenses to choose from, Charges @ Miami or Rams against a turnover prone Jameis Winston.  Chase has Patrick Mahomes, the God of Wind, @ Detroit.  Dome game?  Yes please.  Chase has *checks notes* two Top 20 running backs in LeSean McCoy and *checks notes again* Rex Burkhead.  Julio Jones faces Tennessee and Odell Beckham Jr. faces Baltimore.  This should be a close game.

Katon (1-2) vs. Tommy (1-2)

Katon coming in hot gets Tommy minus Le’Veon Bell due to bye week.  Tommy will have to monitor Julian Edelman and TY Hilton this week as both were banged up last week.  Todd Gurley sucks, Greg Olsen is a God and Derrick Henry faces Atlanta.  Katon has Zeke @ Saints, who are okay at stopping the run right now as long as you aren’t a Qb.  #1 Fantasy Wideout Keenan Allen is @ Miami, Robert Woods is a sneaky DFS play against Tampa Bay with all the attention on Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp.  Larry Fitzgerald faces Seattle’s garbage ass secondary.  Katon is going to win this one.  Big.

Thanks and Good Luck this Week!

-Commish

 

Week 2 Recap & Week 3 Preview

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King Mustafa (2-0) 141.5 vs. Katon (0-2) 97.2

Moose almost was top scorer for his second week in a row until Chase came out of nowhere with a huge Monday night game with Odell.  Moose is top scorer so far this season however, having scored 295.7 points in the first two weeks to start the year.  Katon couldn’t quite get it going this week with another underwhelming performance from Devonta Freeman, an injury to Michael Gallup and Delanie Walker coming back down to Earth from his monster week 1 outing.  Lamar Jackson is averaging 35.1 fantasy points per game for Moose.

Brad (2-0) 134.2 vs. Jen (0-2) 96.4

Brad has scored a consistent 132.1 and 134.2 to start the season, averaging 133.2 game.  A big 24.3 point outing from Chris Godwin set the tone for this matchup as Jen wasn’t able to overcome her terrible number of injuries.  Some bright spots for her is Terry McLaurin looks to be a great free agent find (Wr#5 after 2 weeks) and Calvin Ridley had a big outing on SNF with 22.7.  She’ll be hoping Kittle and DJ start scoring like they can and should.

Joe (0-2) 71.3 vs. JD (2-0) 114.5

Joe’s team didn’t show up to this one.  Had he taken my advice and done a kicker bowl he would have won it, but CMC getting 6.1 on TNF pretty much sealed his fate.  Getting a combined 0.7 from Dede Westbrook and DeSean Jackson didn’t help matters.  JD got 27.5 from Dak Prescott who is looking like a great value to start the year.  His starting running backs combined for 15.3 and he still was able to defeat Joe by 43.2 points.  Bright spot for Joe was Antonio Brown looked like… Antonio Brown.

Scotty (1-1) 128.5 vs. Mike (0-2) 100.9

Scotty rode the NE Patriots D/ST to the tune of 37 points this week.  He also got 25.6 from Aaron Jones and 24.5 from Tom Brady.  Mike is kicking himself for picking Mixon over Dalvin Cook so far this season as Mixon has scored 6.4 fantasy points through two weeks.  With the injury to Brees, his first round pick Mike Thomas takes a hit and Mike has more questions than answers after this week.

Kenny (2-0) 98.1 vs. Trey (1-1) 66.7

Kenny has been an enigma so far this season.  He has scored the 3rd fewest points in the league and yet sits 2-0.  His points against are at 152.6 compared to Jen’s at 288.4 (difference of 135.8 or 89% increase over Kenny’s PA).  In this league, we don’t care how we get the wins, as long as we get them.  Kenny lost Big Ben in this matchup, but got carried by Barkley with 23.7 and Kenny Golladay with 23.9.  Trey had 7 players in single digits and his highest scorer was Aaron Rodgers at 14.2.  Not going to win many games like that.

Chase (1-1) 142.4 vs. Tommy (1-1) 103.4)

Chase came out of nowhere to pass Moose and Brad up to be the highest scorer for the week, thanks to Odell Beckham Jr. doing Odell Beckham Jr. things.  OBJ scored 29.5 including an 89-yard touchdown.  Chase had Julio (29.6), OBJ (29.5) and Mahomes (36.5) combine for 95.6 points, almost enough to take out Tommy by themselves.  Tommy got a respectable 14.9 from Le’Veon despite Trevor Seimen starting and a Qb named Falk finishing the game.  Tommy has to be concerned with having Jared Cook, Saints D/ST, and Wil Lutz with the injury to Drew Brees, but a bright spot on his team is TY Hilton averaging 17.9 fantasy points after two weeks and Derrick Henry averaging 23.2 and being ranked #3 Rb in Fantasy.

Week 3 Preview:

***Game of the Week***

King Mustafa (2-0) vs. Brad (2-0)

The #1 Scorer vs. the #2 Scorer after two weeks face off in an epic battle for Division bragging rights.  Both teams striving for that coveted 3-0.  Although this matchup looks good on paper, it doesn’t take long to dive in and see that Moose is the heavy favorite in this one.  Lamar Jackson who is averaging 35.1 fantasy points per game faces Kansas City in what could be the highest scoring game of the season.  He also has Travis Kelce (TE#2) in this matchup and could opt to use Mark Andrews(TE#1) in the flex.  In addition, he has Amari Cooper vs. Miami’s 3 First Round Picks in 2020, 2 Second Round Picks in 2020, 2 First Round Picks in 2021, 2 Second Round picks in 2021, you get the picture…. They are in full tank mode and as fantasy managers it’s our job to start every single person you can against Miami players and dump every Dolphins player you may have accidentally drafted.  In addition to that juicy-ass matchup, Moose has DJ Moore @ Arizona.  Arizona’s secondary has gotten torched by Matt Stafford and Lamar Jackson and now they get a struggling Cam Newton.  Despite Cam’s struggles DJ Moore is averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game and has 24 targets after two weeks.  Meaning his production is only a matter of time.  What better time than against Arizona defense minus Patrick Peterson?  Looking over at Brad’s side he has Josh Allen vs. Cincinnati or Russell Wilson at home vs. the Saints minus Drew Brees.  The Bills-Cincy game opened at 40.5 O/U but has climbed up to 44, Saints-Seattle game opened at 50 O/U but has dropped to 44.5, so good luck with that shit.  I might flip a coin.  Conner has a banged up knee and travels to the West coast to face a surprising 2-0 49ers team.  Carson is at home vs. the Saints, Godwin faces NYG, and Evan Engram (TE#3) faces Tampa Bay with Daniel “Danny Dimes” Jones taking over the starting gig for Eli Manning.  Brad’s only hope lies in Dalvin Cook, who Moose passed on at the ½ turn, against Oakland.  Cook is fantasy’s #1 Running back after two weeks with scores of 27.8 and 31.3.  Oakland has been stingy against the run in the first two weeks, only giving up 12.6 average points to fantasy running backs when the NFL average is 19.8. That’s good for 4th best in the league in stopping opposing fantasy rb’s.  Like I said, on paper close, but after further review, Moose wins this one, big.

Katon (0-2) vs. Jen (0-2)

On the other side of Division 1 we have two 0-2 teams searching for their first win.  These teams are #1 and #2 in Points Against to start the season after facing Moose and Brad.  Katon has Zeke against Miami in Dallas and he may break the single game rushing record for most rushing yards in a game this week.  Jen is battling so many injuries, it’s hard to imagine she escapes that one matchup alone this week.

***Rivalry Game***

JD (2-0) vs. Tommy (1-1)

Is this a battle over who is the better hunter or a battle over pretend football?  Either way, it’s going to be good!  JD has Dak Prescott vs. Miami in Dallas and he may break the single game rushing record for most rushing yards by a Quarterback in a single week.  He also has both running backs in the Bal @ KC matchup.   Tommy has Le’Veon @ New England.  I wonder if they are going to try taking Le’Veon out of the of gameplan or concentrate on the Qb Luke Falk?  It’s Bell, they are shutting down Bell, okay!  Tommy was most recently spotted wearing Tennessee Titans gear and he has Derrick Henry @ Jacksonville.  You may recall that it was against Jacksonville that Henry had his ultra-super-mega-epic almost 50 fantasy point scoring week last year.  To win this one, Tommy might need that to happen again…

Trey (1-1) vs. Mike (0-2)

In Week 1 Mike scored 85.9 and in Week 2 Trey scored 66.7.  ESPN opens up the projected score at 103.5 to 103.6, which is obviously the closest projected matchup of the week.  Trey has Dallas D/ST against Miami who just gave up 37 fantasy points to New England… at home.  Before they traded their starting safety… Mike has Mixon @ Buffalo and Michael Thomas @ Seattle.  He has Jag D/ST vs. Tennessee.  Are you sure?  Mike I’m worried about you.  You keep starting Jaguars D/ST and they’ve scored 6 points in 2 weeks.  That’s not good Mike.  Derrick Henry went off against them last year.  Do you remember Mike?  Do you remember the 200+ yard 3 touchdown game from Derrick Henry last year against Jacksonville?  Whatever, Yolo, am I right?

Chase (1-1) vs. Joe (0-2)

Chase has Patrick Mahomie in the Baltimore shootout, and Hollywood Brown @ KC, who might be for real.  My brother, Andy, sent me a video of Hollywood hanging out with Lamar Jackson after the game on Sunday, so it appears as though they are good friends… incredible pickup prior to Week 1.  (That’s right, Chase picked up him prior to Week 1, before the big game, and the second big game.  Chase has done it again- cue Britney Spears singing “Oops I did it again…”).  Chiefs D/ST vs. Baltimore.  Yeah Chase is getting a new D/ST this week…. For sure.  He has Cowboys kicker vs. Miami, so he may break the single game record for most points by a kicker in a single game.  Joe has whatever quarterback he picks up off waivers versus whoever they play, Christian McCaffrey @ Arizona.  Antonio Brown vs. the Jets unless he gets suspended or something comes of him being accused of fucking rape.  Looking at the matchup it certainly appears Joe needs help.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see a desperation trade out of Joe, which may be difficult given his best asset is untradeable Christian McCaffrey.

Kenny (2-0) vs. Scotty (1-1)

Kenny is 2-0 despite being 3rd lowest scoring team in the league.  He has Saquon who gets elevated with a shimmer of hope from Daniel Jones getting his first career start.  This Tampa team was able to slow down CMC last week, but can they contain Barkley?  Thielen faces Oakland, Golladay @ Philly and Zach Ertz vs. Detroit.  Don’t sleep on Harrison Butker’s ability to score big in this one.  Unstoppable offense vs. somewhat decent defense.  Scotty has a now week in and week out stud in Tom Brady who has the best receiving corps in all of football.  Kamara takes a hit with Brees injury (maybe?).  Fournette plays Ten on TNF.  Sammy Watkins in the shootout game, TJ Hockensen vs. Philly.  Patriots D/ST get NYJ being quarterbacked by Luke Falk a week after playing Miami.  It’s not even fair at this point… Will Kenny’s luck streak continue?

Good luck to all, but Moose this week!

-Commish B-Razzle

Fantasy Football Brad’s QB Rankings

bradleybertoniere Draft Guide, Fantasy Football, Quarterbacks, Rankings , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Hello all. We are less 10 weeks away from the 2015 NFL Season and I couldn’t be more excited. Here is a list of my Qb rankings for the upcoming season. I will go more in depth in some cases than others and I use the traditional system of 1 pt per 25 yards passing, 4 pts per touchdown, -2 pts per interception, 1 pt per 10 yards rushing, 6 pts per rushing touchdown, and -2 pts per fumble.

1. Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)- I drafted Andrew Luck last year in the 5th round in a league that gives bonuses for 300 yard games. 40 td’s, 10 300 yard games, and a #1 Fantasy Qb ranking later… Luck has arrived. Last year Luck threw A LOT mainly due to lack of running game. In comes Frank Gore and Andre Johnson, which should only help Luck. I think he reduces his interceptions quite a bit and still finishes on top this year. The only tricky thing is where to draft him? Most mock drafts point to him going in the 2nd Round. If you want him, get him. I wouldn’t argue with anybody that drafted Luck with the first pick of the 2nd round. Solidifying fantasy’s top scoring position is one less thing you have to worry about. But keep in mind in Player Value Rankings(PVR)-type rankings they don’t give as much value to Qb’s and they’ll say getting Russell Wilson in Round 3 is a much better deal and I’ll discuss later.

2. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)- Rodgers finished #1 in standard ESPN scoring averaging 21.4 points per game to Luck’s 21.0. He’s got all the weapons back in Lacy, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, D. Adams, etc.  I gave Luck the slight edge due to the fact I think he has room to grow. Rodgers is at his peak and cruising. Another factor is Week 15 and 16 Rodgers faces @ Oakland and then @Arizona. I think Oakland’s defense is under appreciated and the Cardinals had the 4th best passing defense last season. Still, if Rodgers is on your team, you don’t have to worry about the Qb position.

3. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)- Wilson didn’t have a single game last season where he threw for more than 2 touchdowns. Yet he still had 3 games with over 30 points. He’s got the wheels. 6 rushing touchdowns and 3-100 yard rushing games. Bring in Jimmy Graham and that can only help. It’s tough to think of all the wideouts and Jimmy going long, Wilson moving in the pocket, Lynch rolling out on for a screen pass. Who do you defend? Plus he could be a value as he is being drafted towards the end of the 3rd round right now.

***Drop Off***

4. Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons)- I hate Matt Ryan. To me he’s a little weanie… sitting back in the pocket ready to be pushed over with a faint breeze of a blitzing linebacker, but alas he had a great year last year and this year he looks to keep it going. Kyle Shanahan is going to make Ryan to Julio sound sickening to Saints fans by seasons end. If you’re a PVR enthusiast getting Matt Ryan in Round 7 and Julio in Round 2 sounds a lot better than Luck in Round 2 and Andre Johnson in Round 6. Definitely something to think about.

5. Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints)- He’s short, he’s older, and they are focused on the run this year. How could he possibly finish as a Top 5 Fantasy Qb? Brees has always done better when he’s had the run to set up the pass. Last couple of seasons he was so obsessed with finding Jimmy Graham that he lost that distribution that made him so effective in the past. This season with an improved rushing attack and Jimmy gone, Brees can spread the ball between Spiller, Cooks, Hill, Colston, and some young wideouts with a lot of potential. Brees is currently getting drafted in the 4th Round.

6. Teddy Bridgewater (Minnesota Vikings)- Say what now? His average draft position is 126.1 right now. Adrian Peterson is going to solidify the rushing attack. C. Patterson will have a much better season this year and Charles Johnson will take the DeSean Jackson role and make some huge plays. Bridgewater can make plays with his feet too. Last season the coaches held him back a little bit, but this season if playoffs are within grasp they are going to open the gates and let Bridgewater fly.

7. Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins)- It’s time. Tannehill has steadily improved each of his last three seasons. Compared to 2013, last season he completed 6% more passes (66.4 vs. 60.4), threw for 132 more yards, 3 more touchdowns, and 5 less interceptions. It’s this progression that makes him a Top 10 Fantasy Qb that you can draft in later rounds. Imagine if you are able to draft Bridgewater and Tannehill in later rounds and use your 2nd or 3rd round picks to rack up on the quality Wideouts that are available.

8. Eli Manning (New York Giants)- ODB. Eli was on a tear at the end of last season and you could tell he became more and more comfortable in Ben McAdoo’s system. Sprinkle in Victor Cruz coming back and Shane Vereen catching balls out of the backfield and Eli is poised to have a Top 10 Fantasy Season.

9. Peyton Manning (Denver Broncos)- Yes he has a new coach, yes he lost Julius Thomas, and yes his offensive line woes are extremely terrifying. With that being said, last season Peyton was playing great until he got injured, lost faith in his offensive line, and played scared over the last 5 games of the season. He still finished 4th amongst Fantasy Qb’s. He still has Demaryius and Kubiak will find the running backs room to catch balls out of the backfield, so he can still get the job done at age 39.

10. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers)- Last season he finished 5th amongst fantasy Qb’s and has all the same weapons returning. So why the drop off? Well he had 11 weeks under 20 fantasy points last season, but what drove up his stats were two weeks in the middle of the season when he had back to back games with 6 touchdown passes. In most leagues his owners didn’t start him.  And even if they started him in the first game he surely wasn’t going to do that the following week against the Ravens… yeah. Most Big Ben owners didn’t get rewarded for those two huge games and I’d choose others before settling for him this season.

11. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)- Cam Newton had a weird season last season. Rib injuries and his SUV flipping on a bridge… so he played conservatively and let his defense carry the team. He should be healthy this season and will be looking Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen’s way quite often. Sprinkling in youngster Devin Funchess should only help and he finished 15th last season.

12. Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys)- If they are able to get the running game going and keep the pressure off of Romo then he’ll turn out his average season (3700 yards and 27 td’s), but if they can’t duplicate what they did last season sans Demarco Murray then Romo will struggle to stay healthy and back injuries/concerns are quite worrisome in this sport.

13. Colin Kaepernick (San Fransisco 49ers)- My thought here is that he can only get better. Last season was a rough one, but he still was a Top 20 Fantasy Qb and did okay averaging 14.6 points per game. I think the addition of Reggie Bush and Torrey Smith and a defense that will struggle, Kaepernick will be slinging it and running it late in ball games, which is good for fantasy.

14. Matt Stafford (Detroit Lions)- He’s just so inconsistent. He also struggled in 5 of his 6 divisional games with his best game coming against Chicago where he scored 21 points.

15. Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens)- He’ll win you some games, but with 5 games with 10 or less points, he’s going to lose you some too.

16. Carson Palmer (Arizona Cardinals)- When healthy he was good for 250 yards and 2 td’s like clockwork. Expect more of the same this season. Averaging 15-18 points could get him in the Top 10.

17. Tom Brady (New England Patriots)- He finished 8th last season and he pretty much missed the first four weeks of the season any way because the Pats sucked to start the year. This is probably too low of a ranking, but even when he comes back from suspension, averaging 17 points per game will barely be top 10.

18. Eagles Starter (Philadelphia Eagles)- Whoever the Eagles start will get similar stats. 12-15 points per game.

19. Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay Bucs)- Don’t expect the Luck and RGIII emergence of a few years ago. I’m thinking Winston will have more of a Teddy Bridgewater type of rookie season.

20. Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers)- He had a really good year last year, but man some of those games were UGLY. Missing Antonio Gates for 4 games doesn’t help.

21. Derek Carr (Oakland Raiders)- I’m very intrigued by this Raiders team. He averaged 11 points per game as a rookie and I think he got better and the Raiders got better in the offseason. Intrigued.

22. Geno Smith (New York Jets)- In Week 17 last season he showed poise, accuracy, a big arm, and found Eric Decker for both of their best performances of the season. Geno might be worth a flier as a backup or QB2 just to see what happens. New Head coach, new Red Zone threat in Brandon Marshall… this might just be crazy enough to work!

23. Everyone else- Not relevant.

Hope you enjoyed and I’ll be posting my Running Backs Rankings next week!

2015 WR “Sophomore Slump” Candidates

bradleybertoniere Food For Thought, Sophomores, Wide Receivers , , , , ,

Before getting into a bunch of stats and analysis I would first like to define what a “sophomore slump” is.  This is where a Rookie Wide Receiver performs at or above expectations statistically in their rookie year, but then sees a dramatic decrease in statistics in their sophomore year.  Now 2014 had a Wr class like no other.  4 Wide Receivers taken in the first round finished with at least 982 yards and 6 or more td’s.  This may be a moot point to make at all when it comes to these wide receivers as they look to be special, but we all know past production drives up where players are drafted.  So this post will examine which of the four have the greater chance to go down in production.  The four wide receiver candidates are: Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., and Kelvin Benjamin.  Before we go into their stats and projections for next season let’s look at some past sophomore disappointments.

2014 Sophomore Slumpers:

Keenan Allen- Rookie Season 2013- 105 Targets, 71 Receptions, 1046 Yards, 8 Td’s in 15 Games.  ESPN Average Draft Position (ADP): 51.4  Sophomore Season 2014- 121 Targets, 77 Receptions, 783 Yards, 4 Td’s in 14 Games.  Keenan saw his targets and receptions go up, but he had 263 less yards and his touchdown total was cut in half.

Cordarelle Patterson- Rookie Season 2013- 78 Targets, 45 Receptions, 469 Yards, 4 Td’s, 158 Yards Rushing, 3 Rushing Td’s in 16 Games.  ESPN ADP: 62.3  Sophomore Season 2014- 67 Targets, 33 Receptions, 384 Yards, 1 Td, 117 Yards Rushing, 1 Rushing Td in 16 Games.  Cordarelle went down in every single category.  Now sure some of the blame has to be on Adrian Peterson missing the entire year and defenses focusing in on Cordarelle, but it’s still a slump.

Honorable Mention Slumpage:

Tavon Austin-  Because the definition of a sophomore slump is a rookie performing at our above expectation Austin does not qualify because he was terrible in his rookie season.  He did have 418 yards receiving and 4 receiving td’s and his production fell to 242 receiving yards and 0 receiving td’s, but the difference is Austin wasn’t expected to do anything this season.  His ADP was 134.4… so no fantasy player is blaming their 2014 season on Tavon Austin.

Now several wide receivers that had decent rookie seasons in 2013 did better in their sophomore season: DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Hunter, and Kenny Stills.  But that’s not what this article is about.  It isn’t about who did better and who did worse, it’s about where sophomores are drafted in fantasy football drafts and how people can get burned by their decision.  For example, Allen’s ADP was 51.4 and Patterson’s was 62.3.  Emmanuel Sanders ADP was 74.2, Jeremy Maclin’s ADP was 76.2, T.Y. Hilton’s ADP was 76.2, and Golden Tate’s ADP was 84.2.  So if you are choosing a player 2-3 rounds before some other choices and they stink it up, that’s the slump we are trying to avoid.

2013 Slumper- Justin Blackmon

2012 Slumper- Titus Young

But neither of these two went crazy in their rookie seasons…crazy in terms of production, they both have…let’s say “maturity” issues.  So let’s switch gears and look at the very successful rookies of 2014.

2015 Sophomore Slump Candidates:

Sammy Watkins- Rookie Season 2014- 128 Targets, 65 Receptions, 982 Yards, 6 Td’s in 16 Games.  Watkins showed a plethora of talent and he had a great rookie season.  He had more receiving yards than Julio Jones did in his rookie season back in 2012.  The only reason why it doesn’t seem that good is due to the other three rookies I’ll be comparing him with.  The Bills offseason is going to be an interesting one.  This past season they benched EJ Manuel and went with Kyle Orton at Qb, they had a stifling defense, they were committed to the run, and their head coach was Doug Marrone.  Now it looks like Kyle Orton will be retiring, the GM wants EJ Manuel to be the starter, and Doug Marrone opted out of his contract.  It’ll be interesting to see who the Bills bring in and whether or not they can get EJ Manuel where he needs to be.  Fred Jackson is getting older and the oft-injured CJ Spiller is a free agent this offseason.  Would they look for a more pass-happy coach to develop Manuel and try to keep up in a division with Brady and Tannehill?  My prediction: I think Sammy is extremely talented and if they can get some consistent QB play I think he can do some work.  But this is still WAY early, so a lot can change depending on offseason injuries, scheme changes, etc.  He could be a value pick in rounds 5-7 or he could be a bust.  I’m leaning towards value pick as long as people don’t reach for him.

Mike Evans- Rookie Season 2014- 124 Targets, 68 Receptions, 1051 Yards, 12 Td’s in 15 Games.  I knew Mike Evans “had a motor” as Gruden would say, but I didn’t expect a season this good.  He had two mediocre quarter backs throwing him the ball in Josh McCown and Mike Glennon.  McCown might have been the better of the two and his QBR was a 35.7.  (Geno Smith’s was a 35.4)  Evans counterpart Vincent Jackson should be back next season, so that’s good in terms of Evans avoiding double team style coverages.  The biggest factor for Evans will be who the Bucs draft with the #1 Overall Pick this offseason.  If they draft a Mariota or a Winston does his production suffer as a result of them having to teach and babysit a rookie QB?  My prediction: my gut is telling me that Evans has a much higher chance of doing worse than he did this season than Odell Beckham Jr. and Sammy Watkins.  Unless something changes in the offseason that throws a curve ball, I think Evans drops in production.

Odell Beckham Jr.- Rookie Season 2014- 132 Targets, 91 Receptions, 1305 Yards, 12 Td’s in 12 Games!  The Catch.  The internet exploded when ODB caught that ball.  Another thing happened after that catch was made.  Eli Manning made the decision that he officially trusted Odell to catch whatever he threw his way.  71 of his targets, 50 of his receptions, 696 of his receiving yards, and 7 of his td’s came in games after that Dallas game with the catch.  So 54% of his targets, 55% of his receptions, 53% of his yards, and 58% of his touchdowns came in the last 5 weeks of the season.  Eli trusted him and slung the football his way.  In Week 17, Eli targeted Odell 21 times!  Eli wanted to trust Reuben Randle, but Randle kept dropping key balls in the red zone or on third down.  Randle didn’t make amazing plays and every time he had a chance to step up and be the guy he disappointed.  My prediction:  Victor Cruz will be back and Eli continues to learn Ben McAdoo’s system.  Odell continues his success and finishes the 2015 season with right about the same stats.  The problem for Odell will most likely be his ADP.  I’m hearing estimates of him getting drafted in the 2nd Round or higher.  Often with hype, disappointment follows, but he has the skills, he has his qb’s trust, and he has a bright future in the NFL.  I don’t think he slumps, but will he perform with the Jordy Nelson’s, Julio Jones, and AJ Greens of the world next season?  He did this year, but now defenses know to key in on him.  We’ll have to wait to find out.  Victor Cruz might be the value pick up.

Kelvin Benjamin- Rookie Season 2014- 146 Targets, 73 Catches, 1008 Yards, 9 Td’s in 16 Games.  Kelvin was the man in Carolina.  Steve Smith Sr. moved on to Baltimore and the Panthers WR core consisted of Benjamin and a veteran that seemed like he belonged on the Island of Misfit Toys (Jerricho Cotchery).  Naturally Cam Newton threw Benjamin the rock and he had a very successful rookie campaign.  Will Kelvin drop down like Keenan Allen did this season?  Allen was injured and looked like he was in a funk all season.  Benjamin is much bigger than Allen (6’5″ 240 vs. 6’2″ 211) and plays in the underperforming NFC South where the points are made up and the defenses don’t matter.  (Other than the Panthers, but Benjamin plays for them)  My prediction: I would draft him as my WR2 or potential Flex player with the expectation of 1000-1200 yards and 8 td’s.  If his ADP is around 70’s or so then I would feel confident in choosing him.

So there you have it.  Your candidates.  My listing of most likely to slump to least likely to slump:

1. Mike Evans- Most likely drops in touchdown production.

2. Sammy Watkins- All depends on scheme, coach, and who is throwing the rock.

3. Kelvin Benjamin- I think he does eerily similar numbers next season.

4. Odell Beckham Jr.- Could be the most exciting player to watch next season, but he could also be the most disappointing if his stringy body gets injured.  The factor that causes me to believe that his production will remain close to what he did in his rookie campaign is that he did all this in 12 games.  #1 Rookie Wideout in terms of Receptions, Yardage, and Td’s and in 3-4 less games than the other three.

Hope you enjoyed!

-FF Brad

My 15th Year of Fantasy Football

bradleybertoniere Uncategorized

Hey There Sports Fans!

This is my first ever official “blog” but don’t let that fool you.  I have been writing about fantasy football since 2001.  In my league message boards I’ve written everything from weekly predictions, power rankings, draft analysis, season predictions, sleepers/busts, rookies to watch out for, and drafting strategies that work.  I averaged writing over 1500-2000 words at least per week about fantasy football.  With that amount of experience I have learned a lot of ways to be successful and a lot of ways to not be successful when playing fantasy football.  There are a few people in each of the leagues that I play in that continually swirl at the bottom of the rankings and others that are consistent contenders year in and year out.  Why?  Read future posts to find out.  In one league we are approaching its 15th season.  In 15 years I have won the championship once and been to the Super Bowl 4 times.  In another league started 6 years ago, I have made it to the Super Bowl 4 times and have won it twice.  I’m the commissioner of both leagues, so I know what it takes to help people get leagues going and how to stimulate the smack talk with the league seems to be getting a bit dull or owners seem disinterested.

If you’re not convinced that you should be reading this blog weekly (maybe daily during football season) then maybe some stats could convince you otherwise:

These leagues will be used as examples/debatable topics in the future:

Mandeville League: (Since 2006 since years 2001-2005 were lost to expired yahoo accounts) 62-64 Record (1-3 in Super Bowls)  Scoring System: Old School- Qb Td- 4, .25/1 Yard Passing- 1, Rb/Wr Td- 6, .1/yard, NO DEFENSE, Kickers- 3’s, 1’s, and -1’s.

BBY Dream Team League: (Since 2009) 48-30 Record (2-2 in Super Bowls) Scoring System: New- Partial PPR, Defenses, Bonuses for 100,200,and 300 yard games, big play bonuses, field goals are extra for longer kicks.

Some of the best drafted players that I knew would do well:

Matt Schaub 2009.  Led my team to a Super Bowl victory.  Schaub had been injured the previous season and I drafted him in Round 10.  He finished the season as a top 5 qb.

Matt Stafford and Darren Sproles 2011.  Led my team to a Super Bowl victory.  Stafford was also injured in 2010, but in those two games he started in 2009 he threw for over 300 yards in each, which made the decision to draft him in Round 10 worth it, especially considering he threw for over 5000 yards in 2011.  Sproles finished his first season with the Saints with 603 rushing yards, 2 rushing td’s, 86 receptions, 710 yards receiving, and 7 receiving touchdowns.

Peyton Manning 2012.  Led my team to a Super Bowl loss.  How typical of Peyton.  He’s such a tease, but I drafted him in his first season in Denver and it paid off as he finished the season with 4659 yards and 37 td’s.  Do you see a pattern?  Injured players drop in fantasy drafts the following season and provide good value.  How have more people not figured that out?!?!I finished the regular season with an 11-2 record.

Jamaal Charles and Anquan Boldin 2013.  Lead my team to a Super Bowl loss.  These aren’t as good “sleeper” picks as the others, but Boldin balled out as Kaepernick’s favorite target in 2013 and Jamaal Charles scored 59.7 points in Week 15 of the playoffs shooting me to my 3rd straight Super Bowl appearance in the BBY Dream Team League.

Andrew Luck and Jeremy Maclin 2014.  Lead my team to an 8-5 record and 1st Round Playoff loss.  I drafted Jeremy Maclin in all 4 leagues I played in this past year.  All four.  I had 100% confidence that he would have a good season.  For those of you who did not draft Maclin in the mid rounds here are some signs that you missed in the offseason: DeSean Jackson had 82 receptions, 1332 receiving yards, and 9 touchdowns in 2013; his first (and only) season in Chip Kelly’s offense.  He was cut from the team.  Maclin missed all of 2013 due to injury (hey! it happened again!).  He became the #1 Wr once Jackson was cut. 2014 was a contract year for Maclin.  Where did you think those 82-1332-9 numbers were going to go to?  Riley Cooper?  Really?  Also, Andrew Luck.  I figured this would be the last season where you could draft Luck in rounds 3-5 because he’s been becoming a better fantasy qb every season he’s been in the league.  The guy can straight ball out.  He’s now been Top 10 in 2012, Top 5 in 2013, to #1 in 2014.

I’m going to be writing about fantasy football because it’s my hobby, it’s my passion, and I love doing it.  I will not always be right, nobody ever is.  Remember, every day moves are being made and players’ situations are changing.  Paying attention all offseason in preparation for the draft next summer is key to success.  Looking forward to future posts!

-FF Brad