Week 13 Recap:

Division 1:

Mike (7-6) 102.4 vs. Joe (4-8) 139.8

Joe continues to play spoiler!  Joe gets his highest scoring game of the season with Geno Smith getting 25.9, Tony Pollard 23.6, Perine 21.5, Akers 18.5, SF D/ST 22 (Against Miami!).  Those five players combined for 111.5, enough to beat Mike’s team.  Mike got 16.2 from Trevor Lawrence, 23 from Josh Jacobs and double digits from 7/9 players, but nobody went off and 7/9 scored 11.9 or less.  It was a solid effort, but Joe’s team just kept scoring touchdowns.  Mike will now have to face the D1 Winner Tommy to secure a playoff spot.  Tommy is fighting for the 2 seed and a bye in the playoffs.    

 

Tommy (9-4) 137.0 vs. Chase (7-6) 82.8

Tommy clinches the Division 1 Crown after Mike and Chase both lose!  Tommy scored a really solid 137 points.  He had disappointing game from Derrick Henry (4.8) but the rest of his studs did their thing.  Joe Burrow got 30 and moved to 3-0 against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.  Tyreek Hill got 28.1, DK Metcalf got 25.7 and he even got 21 from Dallas D/ST.  On Chase’s side he had a rough week.  Watson looked rusty as hell in his first game action in 700 days.  (5.3 points).  6/9 players scored in single digits including 6 players that scored 5.6 or less.  His lone bright spot was Amon-Ra St. Brown.  The alpha wide receiver caught 11 catches for 114 yards and 2 touchdowns for 32.1 points.  Tommy locks in D1, but has his sights on a bye.  Chase will look to clinch a playoff spot in Week 14 against suddenly surging Joe.        

 

Division 2:

JD (11-2) 144.8 vs. Jen (6-7) 88.3

I didn’t even mention Cleveland D/ST in my preview for this week and they wind up being the story.  The top scorer in this game with 31 points, they scored 3 touchdowns against the Texans and accounted for 4 turnovers.  The interesting thing about their 3 scores is they got one of each.  On interception return for a touchdown, one fumble return for a touchdown, and one punt return for a touchdown.  Insane.  JD got 19.7 from Patrick Mahomes, 14.3 from new addition Zonovan Knight, 23.2 from Garret Wilson, 17.9 from CeeDee Lamb, and 17.8 from Keenan Allen.  JD is getting hot at the right time as we approach the playoffs.  Jen is still alive in the playoff hunt, but ESPN gives her a 1% chance.    

 

Katon (2-11) 110.1 vs. Kenny (6-7) 115.2

Heading into MNF with Kenny’s season on the line (sort of), it was virtually tied with Katon having 105.4 and Kenny having 105.2.  Katon had Alvin Kamara left and Kenny had kicker Wil Lutz.  ESPN gave Katon a 72% chance of winning prior to gametime.  Wil Lutz went 3/3 from on field goals and Kamara was used sparingly.  Saints opted to use Mark Ingram more despite him getting hurt.  Saints collapsed and lost the game, but Kenny emerged victorious.  ESPN gives Kenny an 8% chance to making the playoffs.  I’ll discuss more in the playoff scenario section.  Kenny was carried by Davante Adams 8 catch 177 yard 2 touchdown explosion for 36.7 points.  He also got a solid 19.1 from D’Andre Swift.   Most of his team underperformed, but he got the job done.  Katon got 18.7 from Stefon Diggs and 18 from kicker Robbie Gould, but just got barely edged out in this one.  Had he started Devonta Smith (21.7) instead of Zeke in the flex the game would have ended 115.2 to 115.2 tie.  Kenny would have still gotten the victory because the tie breaker is Qb points as originally set by League Founder and my Dad’s coworker at Community Coffee Wendell.    

 

Division 3:

Moose (7-6) 99.7 vs. Trey (6-7) 105.5

Peripheral Bowl it twas!  Heading into Monday Night Football Moose held a slim lead of 94.7 to Trey’s 93.2.  Moose had Tampa Bay kicker Ryan Succop and Trey had Taysom Hill.  ESPN gave Moose a 57% chance of victory.  Moose got things started in the 1^st Quarter with a chip shot field goal.  But in the 2^nd Quarter Andy Dalton found a wide-open Taysom Hill for a 30 yard touchdown.  Moose has lost 4 in a row and Trey has won 2 in a row to stay alive.  Trey won despite losing Lamar Jackson to any early knee injury.   He finished with only 1.3 points.  He was carried by Tyler Lockett’s 26.3 and Christian Watson’s 22.9.  Watson scored a rushing and a receiving touchdown and looks like the real deal in Green Bay.  Moose had solid efforts from the Top of his lineup with Allen’s 16.8, Barkley’s 16.6, Stevenson’s 10.8, and AJ Brown’s 30.9 in a revenge game against the team that traded him during the draft.  But it was Moose’s peripherals and WR 2 that struggled, with the 4 of them combining for only 13.6 points.  Despite the loss, ESPN says Moose has clinched a playoff spot, locking him into the 4^th, 5^th, or 6^th seed.  Trey will be hoping for a miracle in Week 14.          

 

Scotty (3-10) 79.2 vs. Brad (9-4) 126.2

Scotty started Joe Mixon who was inactive and DJ Moore who was on a bye week.  So that’s shitty.  As commissioner I want to remind everyone to please set your lineups.  Even when you are eliminated.  There are going to be 6 teams playing for money at the end of the season and what happens at the end of the season has playoff seeding implications.  Now in this situation if Scotty just moved pieces around and started Patterson for Mixon and Evans for Moore he still would have lost to Brad, but if the end of the season rankings came down to this it could make someone really upset.  Please set your lineups folks.  Brad was carried by Jalen Hurts 37.4.  He looked like the MVP of the season as he sliced and diced the Titans defense.  Christian McCaffrey looked good against Miami, getting 24.6 fantasy points including an 8-80-1 receiving line on the day.  Brad got nice production out of Pacheco (15.2) and Jefferson (15.1) despite getting pretty much nothing out of Jaylen Waddle (1.4).  Scotty got 21.1 from Justin Herbert and decent production from his peripherals who combined for 31.3.    

 

Week 14 Preview:

Last Game of the Regular Season!

Division 1:

Mike (7-6) vs. Tommy (9-4)

Mike is fighting to stay in the hunt.  Tommy is fighting to get a bye.  Everything at stake.  In their Week 3 meeting Tommy won 105.9 to 75.3.  Mike will feature Dak Prescott vs. Houston.  Houston is #3 OPRK against fantasy Qbs.  Most teams just run on them.  But two weeks ago they even held Tua to 15.8 fantasy points.  Mike will also have #21 Rb Najee Harris against Baltimore.  Baltimore is #6 OPRK against Rbs.  #1 Rb Josh Jacobs faces the LA Rams.  Who despite being horrific have been decent stopping the run this season.    WR #14 Tee Higgins faces Cleveland.  Cleveland defense is very beatable.  In Week 8 he had 3 catches on 6 targets for 49 yards and a touchdown against them.  Mike will need more than that.  He’ll also have Target-Vacuum Chris Godwin @ San Fran.  Tyreek was able to get his against San Fran, but Waddle was shut down last week.  The bigger story is the giant mismatch of San Fran defensive line vs. Tampa’s offensive line.  Brady may want to rethink retirement after this week, but it could lead to more check downs to running backs and perhaps, Chris Godwin.  Dalton Schultz is in the Houston matchup.  Right now Mike has DPJ in the flex against Cincy.  Cincy is #4 OPRK to Fantasy Wrs, but the over/under might be tempting (opened at 49, currently at 47/47.5 depending on which sportsbook you’re looking at).  Don’t overlook Mike’s #2 D/ST NE who averages 12.5 points per game or his kicker #4 Daniel Carlson who averages 9.4.  On Tommy’s side he has #4 Qb Joe Burrow versus Cleveland.  Cleveland is 11^th OPRK, but I think that has more to do with how bad their run defense is rather than how good their pass defense is.  #2 Derrick Henry has been trending down in fantasy points the last 3 weeks 24.2-13.2-4.8, but in comes Jacksonville.  The Jags just gave up a big week to the Swift/Williams combo in Detroit.  This could be a get right game for Henry heading into the final stretch.  At Rb 2 Tommy will most likely roll with Rb #16 Uncle Lenny.  Fournette has lost the starting gig to rookie Rashad White, but against the Saints they split RB touches pretty evenly.  He’s facing San Fran’s #1 OPRK, so Tommy is hoping for lots of catches and possibly a touchdown to make Fournette worth it.  At Wideout Tommy has #4 Tyreek Hill @ LA Chargers.  This game was flexed to Sunday Night Football and features the highest over under of the week at 52.5 points.  #16 DK Metcalf gets Carolina.  #9 TE George Kittle and #19 Brandon Aiyuk square off against Tampa Bay, but they have Brock Purdy at Qb.  Deebo might get more rushes, but we’ll see how it impacts Kittle and Aiyuk down the stretch.  Don’t over look Tommy’s defense #1 Dallas.  They face Houston, the same Houston that Cleveland D/ST scored 3 times against to the tune of 31 fantasy points.  Anything can happen, but this matchup screams Tommy steam roll.    

 

Joe (5-8) vs. Chase (7-6)

Chase is pretty much in.  It would be a freak miracle for him to miss.  He faces a red hot Joe team.  In Joe’s run he was starting Samaje Perine.  Joe Mixon should be back this week.  He may stick with Perine, but don’t look for him to continue his recent success.  Joe does have favorable matchups elsewhere however. Including #7 Qb Geno Smith vs. Carolina, #7 Rb Tony Pollard vs. Houston, #18 Wr Ja’Marr Chase vs. Cleveland, Adam Thielen vs. Detroit, Cam Akers vs. LV.  He also has #2 Tight End Mark Andrews against Pittsburgh.  Andrews did well with replacement Quarterbacks last season and should receive his normal production level.  On Chase’s side he’s hoping Deshaun Watson can shake off the rust against Division foe Cincinnati.  They just bested Patrick Mahomes, so Sir Jerks a Lot has his work cut out for him.  Chase will rely on the Rb duo of #9 Dalvin Cook vs. Detroit and D’Onta Foreman versus Seattle’s #30 OPRK.  He also has #7 Amon-Ra St. Brown against Minnesota, DeAndre Hopkins against New England, and of course #1 Travis Kelce @ Denver.  Should be a great matchup.  Joe is playing for seeding in the Bottom Bowl.  Chase is playing to secure his playoff spot.  There are 3 teams at 6-7 rooting for Joe this week.      

 

Division 2:

Katon (2-11) vs. JD (11-2)

The worst versus the best.  Neither team is playing for anything this week.  Katon has locked in a game at the bottom of the bottom bowl against Scotty.  JD has locked into the 1 seed and is most likely out of reach of points leader.  You guys can just relax and enjoy football this week.  JD will be hoping his core of Patrick Mahomes, Austin Ekeler, and CeeDee Lamb all stay healthy.  As well as Garrett Wilson who is looking like a potential league winner.  JD will basically have two bye weeks in a row.  This matchup doesn’t impact seeding and next week he’ll be on a bye. 

 

Jen (6-7) vs. Kenny (6-7)

THIS matchup however does have some spice to it.  One of these teams will be 7-7.  If Mike or Chase loses then there will at least be a tie in records of 7-7 to determine the 6^th seed.  Jen is hoping for Mike and Chase to both lose and for her to score 70 more points than Mike this week.  Kenny is hoping to win, Mike and Chase to lose and for him to stay higher in points than Mike.  Gonna be tricky.  Of course Jen will have to completely rebuild her team this week due to bye weeks.  She’ll be without #8 Rb Aaron Jones, #20 Rb Antonio Gipson, #13 WR Terry McLaurin, #15 WR Chris Olave, and she’ll have to monitor the health of #14 Rb Kenneth Walker who “jammed” his ankle.  After she reconstructs her roster she’ll have James Conner versus New England and Kenneth Walker vs. Carolina if Walker can’t go she’ll have to pick up a Rb off of Free Agency to start this week.  At WR she’ll have #24 Gabe Davis against the Jets.  She’ll have to get another wideout on free agency to start this week.  Bit of a project and doesn’t bode well for Jen’s 1% chance of making the playoffs.  On Kenny’s side he’s not exactly a clean bill of health either.  He’ll be without his kicker and defense due to bye weeks, but at Qb he lost Jimmy G for the season.  He’ll turn to #12 Tua in a shootout versus LA Chargers, but he tweaked his ankle at the end of the game against San Fran, something to monitor.  #23 Devin Singletary looks like the 3^rd best Rb for the Bills behind emerging rookie James Cook and 3^rd down specialist Nyheim Hines.  #25 Jeff Wilson Jr has a great matchup in that LA Chargers game, but last week he played second fiddle to Raheem Mostert.  D’Andre Swift’s usage was inspiring for Kenny, who hopes that he continues that in a shootout against Minnesota.  #1 Davante Adams gets a Jalen Ramsey game.  #10 Amari Cooper gets #10 OPRK Cincy with a rusty Watson throwing it to him.  In Watson’s first game Cooper caught 4/9 targets for 40 yards.  Both teams need to reconstruct their lineups and keep up in points scored AND have things fall into place perfectly.  Will this game determine a playoff team?  Or is this game a mirage, a false hope, and one that will simply matter to the Bottom Bowl seeding?  We shall find out. 

 

Division 3:

Brad (9-4) vs. Trey (6-7)

Trey’s Cinderella story might be coming to an end this week.  He faces the D3 winner and points leader through 13 weeks Brad.  Brad is trying to get a bye in the playoffs and Tommy holds the tie breaker having beat Brad in Week 6 83.2 to 133.5, which means Brad needs to win and Tommy needs to lose to make that happen.  Trey will not receive mercy from Brad this week and his lineup looks disastrous.  Lamar Jackson was injured and is most likely out this week.  Johnathan Taylor has a very very ill-timed bye week.  So does Christian Watson and even Taysom Hill.  Trey will need to replace his Qb and Tight End in waivers and might have to find a Wideout/Flex as well considering Treylon Burks got concussed last week and will have to clear a more strictly enforced protocol.  He will have #17 Rb Travis Etienne Jr @ Tennessee and #12 Rb Miles Sanders vs. the Giants in a big NFC matchup.  On Brad’s side he’ll have #2 Qb Jalen Hurts in the Giants matchup, #5 Rb Christian McCaffrey against Tampa Bay, #4 Rb Nick Chubb vs. Cincy, #3 WR Justin Jefferson against Detroit, #9 WR Jaylen Waddle vs. LA Chargers, #5 D/ST Buffalo against Mike White and the NY Jets.  Trey has pulled off some miracles to stay alive this long, but this fairy tale looks like it’s about to get crushed without mercy. 

 

Scotty (3-10) vs. Moose (7-6)

Moose has dropped 4 straight but has clinched a playoff spot.  Scotty isn’t starting his lineup anymore, so Moose should progress to 8-6 on the season.  He’ll have #3 Qb Josh Allen vs. the Jets, (he put up 24.8 against them in Week 9), #6 Rb Saquon Barkley against Philly who just shut down Derrick Henry, #11 Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Arizona, #5 WR AJ Brown vs. the NY Giants.  Scotty will have #8 Qb Justin Herbert vs. Miami who just gave up a decent outing to Brock Purdy,  #13 Rb Joe Mixon might actually be back this week against Cleveland, which is a smash spot for Rb’s.  #10 Rb Jamaal Williams is the 2022 James Conner and faces Minnesota.  DJ Moore gets Seattle Tyler Boyd against Cleveland, #3 TE TJ Hockenson gets a revenge game against Detroit. And #20 Deebo Samuel gets Tampa Bay.  If Scotty doesn’t touch his lineup he actually could win this.  He has options on his bench too.  Crazy.      

 

Playoff Scenarios:

5 Teams are vying for the final 2 spots.  For the purpose of tie breakers I’ll include Moose who is 7-6, but according to ESPN has clinched a playoff spot.

6 Teams at 7-6 or 6-7.

How can they get in?

Moose (7-6)- 100% chance

(In according to ESPN who says he has 100% chance.  Will be 4^th, 5^th or 6^th seed.  Moose has scored a lot more points than anyone else 1596.7 and is still in running for points leader with Tommy and Brad.) 

1. Win and he’s in the 4 vs. 5 matchup.
2. Lose against Scotty, Trey wins, Mike loses, Chase loses, then 5-way tie at 7-7 with Moose, Chase, Mike, Trey, and winner of Kenny/Jen. Would go to points for and Moose is in. 
3. Lose against Scotty, Mike wins, Chase wins, Trey wins, then it is 3-way tie at 7-7 with Moose, Trey, and winner of Kenny/Jen. Would go to points for and Moose is in.
4. Lose against Scotty, Mike wins, Chase wins, Trey loses, then it is 2-way tie at 7-7 with Moose and winner of Kenny/Jen. Moose beat both Kenny and Jen, so head to head he’s in.
5. Lose against Scotty, Mike wins, Chase loses, Trey loses, then it would be 3 way tie at 7-7 with Moose, Chase, winner of Kenny/Jen. Moose lost to Chase, but beat the other two.  Records are Moose 2-1, Chase 3-0, Kenny 0-2, Jen 0-2, so records are out, goes to Points For, Moose is in.  In this scenario, it would be 1. JD, 2. Brad, 3. Tommy, 4. Mike, 5. Moose, 6. Chase.  

 

Chase (7-6)- 99% chance

1. Win against Joe and he’s in.
2. Lose against Joe, but Brad beats Trey and Mike beats Tommy. (Chase beat both Kenny and Jen)
3. Lose against Joe, Brad beats Trey, Mike loses to Tommy. (Goes to Points For where Chase, Mike, and winner of Kenny/Jen compare points for.  Chase is at 1459.5, Mike at 1355.3, Kenny at 1383.7, Jen at 1285.4.  So if Kenny doesn’t win AND score 75.8 more than Chase, then Chase is in)

 

Mike (7-6)- 87% chance

1. Win against Tommy and he’s in.
2. Lose against Tommy, but Brad beats Trey and Chase beats Joe. (Mike beat both Kenny and Jen)
3. Lose against Tommy, Brad beats Trey, Joe beats Chase. (Goes to Points For where Chase, Mike, and winner of Kenny/Jen compare points for. Chase is at 1459.5, Mike at 1355.3, Kenny at 1383.7, Jen at 1285.4.  So if Kenny beats Jen Mike would need to score 28.5 more than Kenny.)

 

Kenny (6-7) 8% chance

1. Win against Jen, Mike loses to Tommy AND Chase loses to Joe, Trey loses to Brad. (Goes to Points For where Kenny has to outscore Chase by 75.8 or Mike needs to not outscore Kenny by 28.4.

 

Jen (6-7) 1% chance

1. Win against Kenny, Mike loses to Tommy, Chases loses to Joe, and Jen oustcores Mike by 69.9 AND outscores Trey by 70.0( would have 4-5 teams at 7-7 and Points For would be tie breaker, with Moose in, Chase in, and next highest scorer getting 6^th Jen doesn’t need Trey to beat Brad if Mike and Chase both lose, she would just need to score 69.9 more than Mike.  If Trey wins she would need to outscore Trey by 70.0. 

 

Trey (6-7) 6% chance

1. Win against Brad. Moose beats Scotty. Chase loses to Joe.  Mike loses to Tommy.  This would set up Chase 7-7, Mike 7-7, Trey 7-7, and winner of Jen/Kenny at 7-7.  Trey would need to finish higher in Points For than 2 of the remaining 3.  He’s even with Mike (Trey-1355.4, Mike-1355.3) and holds a lead on Jen (1285.4), but lost to Jen in regular season.  He would need to oustcore Kenny by 28.3 (Kenny is at PF: 1383.7)  if Kenny beats Jen.  He needs Mike and Chase to both lose, because if one of them wins, then it’ll go to head to head matchup between Mike, Trey, and Jen or Mike, Trey and Kenny for 6^th  Mike beat both Kenny and Jen but lost to Trey.  Trey beat Mike and Chase, but lost to Kenny and Jen.  Jen lost to Mike, but beat Trey.  Kenny lost to Mike, but beat Trey. 
2. So let’s say Chase beats Joe, Mike loses to Tommy, Jen beats Kenny, Trey beats Brad, and Moose beats Scotty. It would be 1. JD, 2. Tommy, 3. Brad, 4. Moose, 5. Chase.  The 6^th seed would be tie breaker between Mike 7-7, Jen 7-7, and Trey 7-7.  All 3 would be 1-1 and it would go to Points For.  So who ever finishes the season with most points wins the 6^th  I think this is Trey’s ideal scenario.    

 

The Summary:

The 6 teams will most likely be JD, Tommy, Brad, Moose, Chase, and Mike.  Mike is the only one that is a sizeable risk to lose his spot (13%).  If he does, it would open the door for Trey, Kenny or Jen.