Month: December 2020

BBY 2020: Super Bowl 12 Preview

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BBY 2020 Super Bowl 12 Preview      

3. Mike (Regular Season: 8-5, Playoffs 2-0) vs. 1. Kenny (Regular Season: 9-4, Playoffs 1-0)

Preview: The last Super Bowl to feature two teams that had not won a title was 2017 when Jen faced Trey in Super Bowl 9.  This is Mike’s second Super Bowl appearance, but first since 2009 in Super Bowl I.  This is Kenny’s first Super Bowl appearance.

How They Got Here:

Kenny- 6th Pick.  Dalvin Cook fell to Kenny with contract and injury concerns.  5 Running Backs were drafted ahead of him and yet entering the Super Bowl week Dalvin Cook is the #1 Fantasy Running Back.  In the 2ndRound he was fortunate to have Tyreek Hill fall to him after Joe took Mike (hehe) Evans before him.  That would be #1 Fantasy Wide Receiver Tyreek Hill.  In the next two rounds Kenny took veteran running backs on different teams in 22. Todd Gurley and 17. Melvin Gordon III.  These picks weren’t sexy, but Melvin Gordon scored 5 touchdowns against me in our three matchups this season and I hate him for it.  He then took #6 DK Metcalf in Round 5 and #5 Stefon Diggs in Round 6.  For those keeping track: #1 Rb, #1Wr, #22 Rb, #17 Rb, #6 Wr, #5 Wr.  The rest of his draft sucked, but that didn’t matter.  You go 6/6 in your first six rounds and you’re going to compete.  Adding Rookie Phenom #8 Qb Justin Herbert for $21 was a superb move for a team that seemed to be a Qb away from making a run at this thing.  Kenny wind up scoring 1676.4 regular season points on his way to $200 and a Points Leader winner.  

Mike- 1st Pick.  Mike is in the Super Bowl despite not having his #1 Overall Pick Christian McCaffrey in all but three games this season.  Mike smartly bid $63 for Mike Davis once McCaffrey went down.  Davis has filled in admirably for CMC, but he’s #15 Running Back.  At the 2nd/3rd turn Mike went George Kittle and David Johnson.  Kittle has been effective when playing, but he too was injured, missing 9 games this season.  He averages 14.3 when he actually plays.  #27 Rb David Johnson also missed 5 games due to injury.  In the 4th Round Mike selected #14 AJ Brown who missed 3 games earlier in the season.  In Round 5 Mike busted with TY Hilton.  Hilton scored single digits for the first 11 weeks of the fantasy season.  In the 6thround Mike took Deebo Samuel, who you guessed it… missed 6 games due to injury.  Then in the 7th round Mike struck gold with #2 Qb Kyler Murray.  Mike’s greatest pick though came in Round 11.  He took Justin Jefferson out of LSU.  The rookie is Wide Receiver #7.  Incredible value in Round 11.  The rest was crap.  A saavy move for Mike was picking up Corey Davis for $0 from Free Agency.  He somehow is the #20 Wide Receiver. 

Summary: Kenny was healthy and crushed his first 6 rounds.  Mike was extremely injury riddled this season, but was fortunate to have BY FAR the lowest Points Against (1298.8) the next closest team was Katon with 1407.2.  A difference of 108.4 points.  Would you rather by lucky or good?  

With all that said… none of it matters.  All that matters is what happens in Week 16.

Matchups:

Mike- Mike has #2 Kyler Murray versus San Francisco on Saturday after Christmas.  He last faced San Fran all the way back in Week 1 to the tune of 26.3 fantasy points including 91 rushing yards.  #27 David Johnson faces #17 OPRK Cincinnati with Duke Johnson out of the contest.  This bodes well for DJ from a volume standpoint, which is the reason why he was drafted at the beginning of the third round to begin with.  #15 Mike Davis faces #5 OPRK against that NASTY Washington defensive line.  I’m not sure how effective he’ll be in what might be a defensive affair.  #12 AJ Brown and #20 Corey Davis is against a solid Green Bay secondary on Sunday Night Football.  Star Rookie #7 Wide Receiver Justin Jefferson faces a tough Saints defense in the Dome on Christmas Day.  George Kittle has been activated from IR in time to face an Arizona defense that has been racking up sacks lately.  We’ll have to see if Kittle if Full Go or if he is on a snap count.  As of right now Mike has Indy D/ST versus Pittsburgh instead of Tampa Bay versus a Detroit offense who will have a play caller that hasn’t called plays in forever because their coaching staff got hammered with Covid procedures this week.  Mike has darling #1 Kicker Younghoe Koo versus Kansas City.  Kickers like Koo make fantasy fun.  

Kenny- Kenny has #8 Justin Herbert versus Denver.  In Week 8 Herbert scored 21.1 throwing for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns with a couple interceptions.  #1 Rb Dalvin Cook has a tough matchup against a stout Saints defensive line.  But he’s virtually matchup proof as evident from his 27.4 against Chicago last week to spank Brad’s ass back to 1 Ball Land.  #17 Melvin Gordon faces LAC.  He only managed 7.7 fantasy points in their first outing against the Chargers.  #1 Tyreek Hill gets 32nd ranked Atlanta OPRK.  A virtual smash spot yet Kenny will have to watch as Hill gets the Questionable designation.  Hill faces the worst defense guarding receivers and Kenny’s Wide Receiver #2/3 #6 DK Metcalf faces the best defense at guarding receivers.  LA Rams with #1 OPRK.  Metcalf had BY FAR his worst game of the season going up against Jalen Ramsey and the Rams secondary for a measily 3.8 fantasy points.  We’ll see if he gets shut down again or if he gets revenge for the first outing.  At tight end, Kenny’s only weakness, he has either #18 Dallas Goedert or #17 Tyler Higbee.  Goedert gets Dallas who he scored 2 fantasy points against in Week 8 and Higbee gets Seattle who he scored 7.5 against in Week 10.  Kenny is flipping a coin and hoping one of them catches a TD in this one.  #5 Stefon Diggs Monday Night Football matchup at New England isn’t as daunting given their top Corner Stephon Gilmore landed on IR and NE is out of the playoff hunt.  #3 Dolphins D/ST against LV or #4  Rams D/ST against Russel Wilson and Seattle.  Right now Kenny has Dolphins in his lineup against a Las Vegas team that has nothing to lose as they are out of the playoff hunt.  Kenny has old Mr. Reliable #6 Kicker Justin Tucker.  

Final Thoughts:

This was shaping up to be a David vs. Goliath matchup.  Kenny looks unstoppable scoring 150.3 during the bye week and 142.6 in the Final Four.  Mike had scored 106.8 in Round 1, but then exploded in Round 2 with 151.0 points.  Kenny has the better team.  We know this.  But in Fantasy it’s all about strategy and luck.  Anybody can start the right person or the wrong person.  Last year I started the wrong Wide Receiver after losing my top Rb and top Wr and I lost by 1 point.  Whoever wins will win their first title, will win cash, and have the trophy shipped to them by Moose.  I don’t know who will win, but I’m sure we are in for a fun Super Bowl, that’s stretches over Christmas Day game, Saturday games, Sunday Night Football, and Monday Night Football.  Best of luck to both of you.  May the odds be ever in your favor. 

Bottom Bowl:

Joe vs. Moose:

Winner gets 6 balls, Loser gets 5 balls.  Congrats guys you already “won”

JD vs. Chase

Winner gets 4 balls, Loser gets 3 balls.  Not too shabby.

Scotty vs. Tommy

Winner gets 2 balls, Loser gets 1 ball and the shame of being the worst fantasy player this season.  Come on Scotty, don’t take my high draft grade all the way down man.  My ego can’t take it.  

Thank you all for a wonderful season everyone.  God Bless and I look forward to the draft lottery next season!  Now let’s enjoy Mike and Kenny in Super Bowl 12!

BBY 2020: Round 2 Playoffs

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BBY Dream Team League 2020 Playoffs: Round 2

Quick Recap:

4. Brad defeated 5. Katon in a shootout 160-142.5 and 3. Mike defeated 6. Jen 106.8-82.2.  Bracket still appears to be lopsided setting up a potential David vs. Goliath Super Bowl.  Kenny, Katon, and Brad combined to score 452.8 (average of 150.9) as opposed to Jen, Mike, and Trey combining to score 272.6 (average of 90.9).  Of course anyone can beat anyone any given week.    

Final Four Resume’s:

Kenny: 0-1 in Final Four matchups

Brad: 5-2 in Final Four matchups

Mike: 1-2 in Final Four matchups

Trey: 1-1 in Final Four matchups

Round 2:

Round 2 brings us a beautifully symmetrical bracket.  1-2-3-4 seeds advanced for BBY Supremacy.  Also, the four remaining teams represent the contiguous United States.  Mike represents the North in North Dakota, Brad the West in California, Trey the East in South Carolina, and Kenny the South in Louisiana.  It’s kind of like Game of Thrones.   Mike is the Starks representing the North.  Which of course would make his sigil a Dire Wolf.  Kenny being from the South would make him the Lannister’s who controlled King’s Landing for most of the show.  His sigil would be a Golden Lion, which also equates with all those Points he scored.  Trey would be House Baratheon whose house traditionally rules the Stormlands on the Eastern coast of Westeros and who’s sigil is a Mighty Stag.  And Brad would be House Greyjoy because this fantasy group’s perception of a small surgery that he had on a dilated vein running from his kidney to my left testicle is the equivalent of having his dick chopped off like Theon Greyjoy.  I digress.  

4. Brad vs. 1. Kenny

Preview: Kenny beat Brad twice in the regular season, edged out Brad for Points Winner, and is more handsome.  Brad has the #1 Quarterback, #2 Running Back and #1 Tight End.  Kenny has #1 Running Back, #1 Wide Receiver, AND the #3 Wide Receiver, AND the #4 Wide Receiver, and #2 Defense.  

Matchup Notables:  Brad’s #1 Patrick Mahomes and #1 Travis Kelce (along with Kenny’s #1 Tyreek Hill) face a tough Saints Defense.  This game is being played in the SuperDome where Tyreek Hill may be able to crack the sound barrier on a deep route.  Brad’s #2 Derrick Henry faces OPRK 31st Detroit, setting up an on-paper smash spot.  Kenny’s trio of wideouts have tough(er) matchups in #1 Tyreek Hill vs. #8 OPRK New Orleans, #3 DK Metcalf vs. #4 OPRK Washington, and #4 Stefon Diggs vs. #10 OPRK Denver.  #1 Rb Dalvin Cook hasn’t done great against #8 OPRK Chicago’s defense.  But Kenny has a Diamond in the Rough in #2 D/ST LA Rams versus #32 OPRK the hapless New York Jets.  That is going to be a slaughter and Kenny could easily get north of 20 points there. 

Final Thoughts: Brad would need to have a lot of fortunate chain of events to take place to defeat the Top Seed in the playoffs.  

3. Mike vs. 2. Trey

Preview: Trey defeated Mike 113.4 to 109.7 in Week 10.  This is their first playoff matchup.  Trey has #4 and #8 Running Backs.  Mike has #2 Quarterback and #8 Wide Receiver.  

Matchup Notables: Mike has #15 Rb Mike Davis vs. #29th OPRK GB Packers on Saturday, and his Titans Stack of #13 AJ Brown and #25 Corey Davis face #27th OPRK Detroit Lions.  Trey has all matchups which feature middle of the pack OPRK’s with the exception of TY Hilton who faces #24 OPRK Houston Texans.  TY has been on a tear the last 3 weeks averaging 21.1 points per game.  

Final Thoughts:  This matchup could go either way.  Interesting note to add is Mike’s #2 Qb Kyler Murray facing Rookie Jalen Hurts in a game against one another.  Who wins between Sophomore and Rookie?  

Bottom Bowl:

Game 1: Moose vs. Chase: 

Super Bowl 10 Rematch sets friends against one another.  Winner is guaranteed 5-6 balls in Game 1 of Round 3. Loser is guaranteed 3-4 balls in Game 2 of Round 3.

Game 2: Joe vs. Tommy

Friends become enemies.  Enemies become friends.  This is the most important and volatile game in the Bottom Bowl.  Game 2 of Round 2.  The winner is guaranteed 5 or 6 balls in Game 1 of Round 3.  The loser; however, shoots down to Game 3 of Round 3 and can either win 2 balls or only have 1 ball like the playoff teams.  Since it’s so volatile it would be a perfect time for a… kicker bowl?

Game 3: JD vs. Scotty

Winner moves on to Game 2 of Round 2 and is guaranteed 3 or 4 balls.  Loser moves on to Game 3 of Round 3 and will either win 2 balls or only get 1 ball.  

Best of Luck Everyone!  I certainly hope Justin Herbert doesn’t go to Overtime and instead of finishing with 19.7 fantasy points hit a bomb and go over 300 yards and then rush for a game winning touchdown in overtime to give Kenny a 30.8 point head start against me this week!    

BBY 2020 Playoffs Round 1 Preview

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Playoff Preview Round 1

Welcome to the Playoff Preview for the 2020 Playoffs of the 12th year of the Best Buy Dream Team League.  Couple more prepositions and that sentence would have gotten really annoying.   First analysis of the bracket shows that it is a bit lopsided.  1. Kenny (Points For: 1676.4) will play the winner of 4. Brad (Points For: 1637.2) and 5. Katon (Points For: 1506.3).  The average Points For on this side of the bracket is 1606.6.  On the other side we have 2. Trey (Points For: 1504.8) will play the winner of 3. Mike (Points For: 1508.3) vs. 6. Jen (Points For: 1282.2).  The average Points For on this side of the bracket is 1431.8.  Of course, in the Fantasy Playoffs it doesn’t matter how you got there.  It matters that you got in.  Because if you got in then you have a shot.  A shot… at winning a Championship.  Only two teams out of the six have won Super Bowls before (Trey: 2017, Brad: 2009, 2011).  Five teams have made it to Super Bowls before (Jen lost to Trey in 2017, Katon lost to Chase in 2016, and Mike lost to Brad in 2009).  Then there is Kenny.  Kenny has never made it to a Super Bowl, but he comes into the bracket as the #1 Seed and won the Points Leader Title for 2020, winning him some cash in the process.  ($180).  Of course, I would be remiss to not mention how crazy of a season it’s been.  Dealing with suspended games, players unexpectedly going on COVID Reserve lists, on top of another injury riddled season.  It has been challenging to make the right calls and it’s another reminder of how little we control in fantasy.  We control a lot, but luck and circumstance control a lot too.  Best of Luck to the four playoffs teams squaring off this week.  May the odds be ever in your favor.  

Byes: 1. Kenny, 2. Trey

Playoff Resumes’:

Kenny: Appearances: 3, Record: 1-3, SB Appearances: 0, SB Wins: 0

Trey: Appearances: 4, Record: 4-3, SB Appearances: 1, SB Wins: 1 (2017)

3. Mike (8-5) vs. 6. Jen (7-6)

Playoff Resumes’:

Mike: Appearances: 3, Record: 2-3, SB Appearances: 1, SB Wins: 0

Jen: Appearances: 2, Record: 1-2, SB Appearances: 1, SB Wins: 0

Preview: The winner of Mike and Jen will go on to face the 2 Seed Trey.  These two have not met head-to-head in the playoffs previously.

X Factor Players: 

Mike’s x factor player: Christian McCaffrey.  Run CMC was out for most of the 2020 campaign dealing with a high ankle sprain, then when he returns, he injured his shoulder/ribs.  In the three contests he participated in he averaged 27.3 points per game.  He is looking good to be active in this one to the detriment of Jen’s playoff hopes.   

Jen’s x factor player: #6 DeAndre Hopkins.  D-Hop has struggled lately as much of the Cardinals offense has struggled.  In the last three weeks Hopkins has averaged 10.3 points per game.  For the season he averages 15.6 points per game, but he hasn’t been consistent.  He has scored over 20+ points in 5 contests and less than 10 points in 5 contests.  So which Hopkins will show up for Jen?  To advance she needs the 20+, which may be a difficult ask given Hopkins potential shadow coverage from lockdown corner James Bradberry on an underrated Giants Defense.  

Matchup Notables:

Mike- #16 AJ Brown faces a very beatable Jacksonville secondary ranked 30th in OPRK.  He was out the first time the Titans played the Jags and should post solid numbers in this game, which has a weird look of a shootout to it.  #4 Justin Jefferson is at Tampa Bay who gave up 269 receiving yards to Tyreek Hill a couple of weeks ago.  Tampa is coming off of a bye and sometimes teams can be a bit unpredictable following a bye week.  Some come out and look great, others come out and get destroyed.  Will be something to watch.

Jen- #6 Deshaun Watson plays @ Chicago.  Chicago is beatable in the secondary, but they have their moments.  They sit OPRK 9th and have been tough for opposing Quarterbacks; however, in the past two weeks they have given up almost 300 yards passing per game and 7 passing touchdowns.  On Sunday the current weather projection shows a high in Chicago of 32 degrees with a low of 21 degrees.     

Brad’s Final Thoughts:

Looking at the matchups Jen’s chances are slim.  It would be a huge upset for Jen to take out Mike and advance to the semifinals against Trey.  Of course, Mike had some favorable matchups in Week 5 too.  Jen defeated Mike 148.3 to 103.3 back then.  Who wins this one?

4. Brad (8-5) vs. 5. Katon (7-6)

Playoff Resumes’:

Brad: Appearances: 9, Record: 11-7, SB Appearances: 5, SB Wins: 2 (2009, 2011)

Katon: Appearances: 4, Record: 3-4, SB Appearances: 1: SB Wins: 0

Preview: The winner of Brad and Katon will go on to face the 1 Seed Kenny.  These two met in the playoffs in 2016 with Katon defeating Brad 153.5 to 97.9. This is Brad’s 10th playoff appearance in 12 seasons.   

X Factor Players:

Brad- #1 Travis Kelce might be the most valuable player in fantasy this season.  Given how bad the tight end position has been (of course last week there was a bit of an explosion from Darren Waller and other tight ends like Mike Gesicki and Logan Thomas had solid games). His 17.8 points per game is equivalent of having the #5 Fantasy Running Back in the Tight End slot.  He is Brad’s X Factor.  He has a test this week against Miami who is striving to convince the league of their validity as a playoff contender.  Beating the Chiefs might just accomplish that, but is easier said than done.  

Katon- #5 Aaron Rodgers.  In the last 7 games Rodgers has been a model of consistency, scoring between 22.5 and 31.9 fantasy points, and tossing multiple touchdowns in every one of those games.  On the season he averaged 24.7 points per game and should be a solid foundation for Katon’s point total in Round 1.  A dome game at Detroit isn’t a bad thing to keep that production moving forward.    

Matchup Notables:

Brad- His Chiefs Stack of #1 Patrick Mahomes/#1 Travis Kelce faces Miami.  In the last three weeks the Miami defense has given up an average of 7.9 fantasy points to opposing fantasy quarterbacks.  Now those Quarterbacks came from the Broncos, the Jets, and the Bengals.  Their kryptonite has been mobile quarterbacks with Cam Newton (25.7), Josh Allen (39.5), Russel Wilson (23.9) and Kyler Murray (40.8).  Mahomes may need to use his feet more in this one, which he has done some this season.  He rushed for over 25 yards in 6 games this season.  #3 Derrick Henry faces OPRK #29 Jacksonville coming off of a game where the Titans got destroyed (although their comeback makes it look a lot closer than it was) against the Browns last week and will be angry this week.  Derrick Henry facing Jacksonville twice this season was one of Brad’s main motivations for drafting him over Alvin Kamara.  In Week 2 Henry only got 8.4 fantasy points against them.  Brad will need these three to do average or better to have a shot to advance.    

Katon- #12 David Montgomery faces Houston ranked 31 OPRK.  Since the bye week Run D. Monty has averaged 25.5 fantasy points.  Potential smash spot for Montgomery who has been a true workhorse for Chicago the past two weeks.  #5 Keenan Allen also has a great matchup against Atlanta’s 31 OPRK. Atlanta averages 38 fantasy points against them per game to the Wide Receiver position.  Unless Mike Williams or James Guyton steps up, I imagine most of those points heading Allen’s way this week.  

Brad’s Final Thoughts:

Both teams are Top Heavy with a large percentage of their points coming from 3 players.  If Mahomes, Henry, and Kelce are cancelled out by Rodgers, Montgomery, and Allen, then this matchup might come down to everyone else.  Katon has better Rb2 in Nick Chubb facing Baltimore, Brad’s Wr1 Terry McLaurin could be a factor.  Honestly this game is pretty close to a toss up.  But given the matchups I think Katon’s big 3 have more potential to go off than Brad’s big 3.  So I’m inclined to believe that Katon may be favored to win ever so slightly.  

Bottom Bowl Preview:

Let’s talk about what you really came here for.  Balls.  That’s right, lottery balls that can won to increase one’s chance at a higher draft pick.  It worked out well with those with a Top 4 Pick this year.  The draft picks that made the playoffs were 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 12.  So either you need to be #1 or get an even number.  Except of course for Scotty at #10 who got Brad’s Draft Grade kiss of death.  I digress, Bottom Bowl!

7. Chase (6-7) vs. 8. Tommy (6-7)

Chase won both regular season matchups against Tommy and they meet yet again.  The winner of this game will be in Game 1 of the second round and will already guarantee themselves 3 or more balls in the draft lottery next year.  So there is a lot at stake.  Chase opens up as a near 29 point favorite.  Had Chase’s luck gone slightly differently in the regular season his team has the potential of a post season run.  That run is still available just to win a potential higher draft pick next year.  Russell Wilson faces the Jets who are decent at stopping the run, but have given up 29+ fantasy points in 5 games this season.  Davante Adams faced Detroit, so 30 points isn’t a bad projection for him.  He averages 23.6 for God’s sake.  Tommy’s team is decent on paper with Top 10 Qb, 2 Top 10 Rb, 2 Top 18 WR, but Zeke getting neutered from the Dak injury, Kareem Hunt crapping out since Chubb’s return, and Kenny Golladay’s hip injury have pushed Tommy to the outside looking in.  And now a tough match against Chase.  A loss would put him in the Game 2 of Round 2, which is the most volatile Bottom Bowl game of the postseason.  Can Tommy pull off the upset and avenge his two losses in the regular season?

9. JD (5-8) vs. 10. Moose (5-8)

Moose won back-to-back titles and was striving for a three peat but wasn’t able to scrape together enough wins to make the playoffs despite scoring the third most points in the league and scoring the most in his division.  The salt in the wound thing about this season for Moose has to be the fact that the three other teams in his division all made the playoffs.  As you know in this league we practice “prima nocta” with the Champion being able to select the first team to be in their division.  JD started off rough, but he pulled off possibly the most lopsided trade in history this year.  Securing #3 Qb Josh Allen and #6 Rb Antonio Gibson for #11 Rb Kenyan Drake and a handcuff.  Unfortunately for JD he won’t have Gibson this week due to a turf toe injury, so he’ll have to rely on someone else to try and get him past Moose and into the coveted Game 1 of Round 2.  His key to victory will be #5 Aaron Jones versus Detroit.  Moose’s team exploded last week and enters this matchup out for blood.  Lamar Jackson @ Cleveland could help with that. 

11. Joe (4-9) vs. 12. Scotty (4-9)

Just realized the symmetry of the Bottom Bowl.  6-7 vs. 6-7, 5-8 vs. 5-8, and 4-9 vs. 4-9.  Joe stacked the Steelers this season and coupled them with Rookie Running Backs.  It looked good and I thought the strategy was going to work.  Then Steelers spread the ball out a lot making JuJu inconsistent and have a capped ceiling.  The rookies were impacted by crowded backfields, with Chiefs signing Le’veon Bell and the Colts relying on a rotation with Nyheim Hines stealing a lot of the valuable touches from Jonathan Taylor.  Scotty just got hit with the injury bug and he got hit hard.  Ekeler, Sanders, Conner, Dak.  Too many assets missing too many games to catch any momentum.  He traded injured Sanders for healthy Godwin and Godwin breaks a finger.  Par for the course.  The winner of this game moves on the volatile Game 2 in Round 2, the loser already is out of a chance at 6 and 5 balls and will secure 4 or less.  

Good Luck Everybody!