Before getting into a bunch of stats and analysis I would first like to define what a “sophomore slump” is.  This is where a Rookie Wide Receiver performs at or above expectations statistically in their rookie year, but then sees a dramatic decrease in statistics in their sophomore year.  Now 2014 had a Wr class like no other.  4 Wide Receivers taken in the first round finished with at least 982 yards and 6 or more td’s.  This may be a moot point to make at all when it comes to these wide receivers as they look to be special, but we all know past production drives up where players are drafted.  So this post will examine which of the four have the greater chance to go down in production.  The four wide receiver candidates are: Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., and Kelvin Benjamin.  Before we go into their stats and projections for next season let’s look at some past sophomore disappointments.

2014 Sophomore Slumpers:

Keenan Allen- Rookie Season 2013- 105 Targets, 71 Receptions, 1046 Yards, 8 Td’s in 15 Games.  ESPN Average Draft Position (ADP): 51.4  Sophomore Season 2014- 121 Targets, 77 Receptions, 783 Yards, 4 Td’s in 14 Games.  Keenan saw his targets and receptions go up, but he had 263 less yards and his touchdown total was cut in half.

Cordarelle Patterson- Rookie Season 2013- 78 Targets, 45 Receptions, 469 Yards, 4 Td’s, 158 Yards Rushing, 3 Rushing Td’s in 16 Games.  ESPN ADP: 62.3  Sophomore Season 2014- 67 Targets, 33 Receptions, 384 Yards, 1 Td, 117 Yards Rushing, 1 Rushing Td in 16 Games.  Cordarelle went down in every single category.  Now sure some of the blame has to be on Adrian Peterson missing the entire year and defenses focusing in on Cordarelle, but it’s still a slump.

Honorable Mention Slumpage:

Tavon Austin-  Because the definition of a sophomore slump is a rookie performing at our above expectation Austin does not qualify because he was terrible in his rookie season.  He did have 418 yards receiving and 4 receiving td’s and his production fell to 242 receiving yards and 0 receiving td’s, but the difference is Austin wasn’t expected to do anything this season.  His ADP was 134.4… so no fantasy player is blaming their 2014 season on Tavon Austin.

Now several wide receivers that had decent rookie seasons in 2013 did better in their sophomore season: DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Hunter, and Kenny Stills.  But that’s not what this article is about.  It isn’t about who did better and who did worse, it’s about where sophomores are drafted in fantasy football drafts and how people can get burned by their decision.  For example, Allen’s ADP was 51.4 and Patterson’s was 62.3.  Emmanuel Sanders ADP was 74.2, Jeremy Maclin’s ADP was 76.2, T.Y. Hilton’s ADP was 76.2, and Golden Tate’s ADP was 84.2.  So if you are choosing a player 2-3 rounds before some other choices and they stink it up, that’s the slump we are trying to avoid.

2013 Slumper- Justin Blackmon

2012 Slumper- Titus Young

But neither of these two went crazy in their rookie seasons…crazy in terms of production, they both have…let’s say “maturity” issues.  So let’s switch gears and look at the very successful rookies of 2014.

2015 Sophomore Slump Candidates:

Sammy Watkins- Rookie Season 2014- 128 Targets, 65 Receptions, 982 Yards, 6 Td’s in 16 Games.  Watkins showed a plethora of talent and he had a great rookie season.  He had more receiving yards than Julio Jones did in his rookie season back in 2012.  The only reason why it doesn’t seem that good is due to the other three rookies I’ll be comparing him with.  The Bills offseason is going to be an interesting one.  This past season they benched EJ Manuel and went with Kyle Orton at Qb, they had a stifling defense, they were committed to the run, and their head coach was Doug Marrone.  Now it looks like Kyle Orton will be retiring, the GM wants EJ Manuel to be the starter, and Doug Marrone opted out of his contract.  It’ll be interesting to see who the Bills bring in and whether or not they can get EJ Manuel where he needs to be.  Fred Jackson is getting older and the oft-injured CJ Spiller is a free agent this offseason.  Would they look for a more pass-happy coach to develop Manuel and try to keep up in a division with Brady and Tannehill?  My prediction: I think Sammy is extremely talented and if they can get some consistent QB play I think he can do some work.  But this is still WAY early, so a lot can change depending on offseason injuries, scheme changes, etc.  He could be a value pick in rounds 5-7 or he could be a bust.  I’m leaning towards value pick as long as people don’t reach for him.

Mike Evans- Rookie Season 2014- 124 Targets, 68 Receptions, 1051 Yards, 12 Td’s in 15 Games.  I knew Mike Evans “had a motor” as Gruden would say, but I didn’t expect a season this good.  He had two mediocre quarter backs throwing him the ball in Josh McCown and Mike Glennon.  McCown might have been the better of the two and his QBR was a 35.7.  (Geno Smith’s was a 35.4)  Evans counterpart Vincent Jackson should be back next season, so that’s good in terms of Evans avoiding double team style coverages.  The biggest factor for Evans will be who the Bucs draft with the #1 Overall Pick this offseason.  If they draft a Mariota or a Winston does his production suffer as a result of them having to teach and babysit a rookie QB?  My prediction: my gut is telling me that Evans has a much higher chance of doing worse than he did this season than Odell Beckham Jr. and Sammy Watkins.  Unless something changes in the offseason that throws a curve ball, I think Evans drops in production.

Odell Beckham Jr.- Rookie Season 2014- 132 Targets, 91 Receptions, 1305 Yards, 12 Td’s in 12 Games!  The Catch.  The internet exploded when ODB caught that ball.  Another thing happened after that catch was made.  Eli Manning made the decision that he officially trusted Odell to catch whatever he threw his way.  71 of his targets, 50 of his receptions, 696 of his receiving yards, and 7 of his td’s came in games after that Dallas game with the catch.  So 54% of his targets, 55% of his receptions, 53% of his yards, and 58% of his touchdowns came in the last 5 weeks of the season.  Eli trusted him and slung the football his way.  In Week 17, Eli targeted Odell 21 times!  Eli wanted to trust Reuben Randle, but Randle kept dropping key balls in the red zone or on third down.  Randle didn’t make amazing plays and every time he had a chance to step up and be the guy he disappointed.  My prediction:  Victor Cruz will be back and Eli continues to learn Ben McAdoo’s system.  Odell continues his success and finishes the 2015 season with right about the same stats.  The problem for Odell will most likely be his ADP.  I’m hearing estimates of him getting drafted in the 2nd Round or higher.  Often with hype, disappointment follows, but he has the skills, he has his qb’s trust, and he has a bright future in the NFL.  I don’t think he slumps, but will he perform with the Jordy Nelson’s, Julio Jones, and AJ Greens of the world next season?  He did this year, but now defenses know to key in on him.  We’ll have to wait to find out.  Victor Cruz might be the value pick up.

Kelvin Benjamin- Rookie Season 2014- 146 Targets, 73 Catches, 1008 Yards, 9 Td’s in 16 Games.  Kelvin was the man in Carolina.  Steve Smith Sr. moved on to Baltimore and the Panthers WR core consisted of Benjamin and a veteran that seemed like he belonged on the Island of Misfit Toys (Jerricho Cotchery).  Naturally Cam Newton threw Benjamin the rock and he had a very successful rookie campaign.  Will Kelvin drop down like Keenan Allen did this season?  Allen was injured and looked like he was in a funk all season.  Benjamin is much bigger than Allen (6’5″ 240 vs. 6’2″ 211) and plays in the underperforming NFC South where the points are made up and the defenses don’t matter.  (Other than the Panthers, but Benjamin plays for them)  My prediction: I would draft him as my WR2 or potential Flex player with the expectation of 1000-1200 yards and 8 td’s.  If his ADP is around 70’s or so then I would feel confident in choosing him.

So there you have it.  Your candidates.  My listing of most likely to slump to least likely to slump:

1. Mike Evans- Most likely drops in touchdown production.

2. Sammy Watkins- All depends on scheme, coach, and who is throwing the rock.

3. Kelvin Benjamin- I think he does eerily similar numbers next season.

4. Odell Beckham Jr.- Could be the most exciting player to watch next season, but he could also be the most disappointing if his stringy body gets injured.  The factor that causes me to believe that his production will remain close to what he did in his rookie campaign is that he did all this in 12 games.  #1 Rookie Wideout in terms of Receptions, Yardage, and Td’s and in 3-4 less games than the other three.

Hope you enjoyed!

-FF Brad