Year: 2015

Fantasy Football Brad’s QB Rankings

bradleybertoniere Draft Guide, Fantasy Football, Quarterbacks, Rankings , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Hello all. We are less 10 weeks away from the 2015 NFL Season and I couldn’t be more excited. Here is a list of my Qb rankings for the upcoming season. I will go more in depth in some cases than others and I use the traditional system of 1 pt per 25 yards passing, 4 pts per touchdown, -2 pts per interception, 1 pt per 10 yards rushing, 6 pts per rushing touchdown, and -2 pts per fumble.

1. Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)- I drafted Andrew Luck last year in the 5th round in a league that gives bonuses for 300 yard games. 40 td’s, 10 300 yard games, and a #1 Fantasy Qb ranking later… Luck has arrived. Last year Luck threw A LOT mainly due to lack of running game. In comes Frank Gore and Andre Johnson, which should only help Luck. I think he reduces his interceptions quite a bit and still finishes on top this year. The only tricky thing is where to draft him? Most mock drafts point to him going in the 2nd Round. If you want him, get him. I wouldn’t argue with anybody that drafted Luck with the first pick of the 2nd round. Solidifying fantasy’s top scoring position is one less thing you have to worry about. But keep in mind in Player Value Rankings(PVR)-type rankings they don’t give as much value to Qb’s and they’ll say getting Russell Wilson in Round 3 is a much better deal and I’ll discuss later.

2. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)- Rodgers finished #1 in standard ESPN scoring averaging 21.4 points per game to Luck’s 21.0. He’s got all the weapons back in Lacy, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, D. Adams, etc.  I gave Luck the slight edge due to the fact I think he has room to grow. Rodgers is at his peak and cruising. Another factor is Week 15 and 16 Rodgers faces @ Oakland and then @Arizona. I think Oakland’s defense is under appreciated and the Cardinals had the 4th best passing defense last season. Still, if Rodgers is on your team, you don’t have to worry about the Qb position.

3. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)- Wilson didn’t have a single game last season where he threw for more than 2 touchdowns. Yet he still had 3 games with over 30 points. He’s got the wheels. 6 rushing touchdowns and 3-100 yard rushing games. Bring in Jimmy Graham and that can only help. It’s tough to think of all the wideouts and Jimmy going long, Wilson moving in the pocket, Lynch rolling out on for a screen pass. Who do you defend? Plus he could be a value as he is being drafted towards the end of the 3rd round right now.

***Drop Off***

4. Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons)- I hate Matt Ryan. To me he’s a little weanie… sitting back in the pocket ready to be pushed over with a faint breeze of a blitzing linebacker, but alas he had a great year last year and this year he looks to keep it going. Kyle Shanahan is going to make Ryan to Julio sound sickening to Saints fans by seasons end. If you’re a PVR enthusiast getting Matt Ryan in Round 7 and Julio in Round 2 sounds a lot better than Luck in Round 2 and Andre Johnson in Round 6. Definitely something to think about.

5. Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints)- He’s short, he’s older, and they are focused on the run this year. How could he possibly finish as a Top 5 Fantasy Qb? Brees has always done better when he’s had the run to set up the pass. Last couple of seasons he was so obsessed with finding Jimmy Graham that he lost that distribution that made him so effective in the past. This season with an improved rushing attack and Jimmy gone, Brees can spread the ball between Spiller, Cooks, Hill, Colston, and some young wideouts with a lot of potential. Brees is currently getting drafted in the 4th Round.

6. Teddy Bridgewater (Minnesota Vikings)- Say what now? His average draft position is 126.1 right now. Adrian Peterson is going to solidify the rushing attack. C. Patterson will have a much better season this year and Charles Johnson will take the DeSean Jackson role and make some huge plays. Bridgewater can make plays with his feet too. Last season the coaches held him back a little bit, but this season if playoffs are within grasp they are going to open the gates and let Bridgewater fly.

7. Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins)- It’s time. Tannehill has steadily improved each of his last three seasons. Compared to 2013, last season he completed 6% more passes (66.4 vs. 60.4), threw for 132 more yards, 3 more touchdowns, and 5 less interceptions. It’s this progression that makes him a Top 10 Fantasy Qb that you can draft in later rounds. Imagine if you are able to draft Bridgewater and Tannehill in later rounds and use your 2nd or 3rd round picks to rack up on the quality Wideouts that are available.

8. Eli Manning (New York Giants)- ODB. Eli was on a tear at the end of last season and you could tell he became more and more comfortable in Ben McAdoo’s system. Sprinkle in Victor Cruz coming back and Shane Vereen catching balls out of the backfield and Eli is poised to have a Top 10 Fantasy Season.

9. Peyton Manning (Denver Broncos)- Yes he has a new coach, yes he lost Julius Thomas, and yes his offensive line woes are extremely terrifying. With that being said, last season Peyton was playing great until he got injured, lost faith in his offensive line, and played scared over the last 5 games of the season. He still finished 4th amongst Fantasy Qb’s. He still has Demaryius and Kubiak will find the running backs room to catch balls out of the backfield, so he can still get the job done at age 39.

10. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers)- Last season he finished 5th amongst fantasy Qb’s and has all the same weapons returning. So why the drop off? Well he had 11 weeks under 20 fantasy points last season, but what drove up his stats were two weeks in the middle of the season when he had back to back games with 6 touchdown passes. In most leagues his owners didn’t start him.  And even if they started him in the first game he surely wasn’t going to do that the following week against the Ravens… yeah. Most Big Ben owners didn’t get rewarded for those two huge games and I’d choose others before settling for him this season.

11. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)- Cam Newton had a weird season last season. Rib injuries and his SUV flipping on a bridge… so he played conservatively and let his defense carry the team. He should be healthy this season and will be looking Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen’s way quite often. Sprinkling in youngster Devin Funchess should only help and he finished 15th last season.

12. Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys)- If they are able to get the running game going and keep the pressure off of Romo then he’ll turn out his average season (3700 yards and 27 td’s), but if they can’t duplicate what they did last season sans Demarco Murray then Romo will struggle to stay healthy and back injuries/concerns are quite worrisome in this sport.

13. Colin Kaepernick (San Fransisco 49ers)- My thought here is that he can only get better. Last season was a rough one, but he still was a Top 20 Fantasy Qb and did okay averaging 14.6 points per game. I think the addition of Reggie Bush and Torrey Smith and a defense that will struggle, Kaepernick will be slinging it and running it late in ball games, which is good for fantasy.

14. Matt Stafford (Detroit Lions)- He’s just so inconsistent. He also struggled in 5 of his 6 divisional games with his best game coming against Chicago where he scored 21 points.

15. Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens)- He’ll win you some games, but with 5 games with 10 or less points, he’s going to lose you some too.

16. Carson Palmer (Arizona Cardinals)- When healthy he was good for 250 yards and 2 td’s like clockwork. Expect more of the same this season. Averaging 15-18 points could get him in the Top 10.

17. Tom Brady (New England Patriots)- He finished 8th last season and he pretty much missed the first four weeks of the season any way because the Pats sucked to start the year. This is probably too low of a ranking, but even when he comes back from suspension, averaging 17 points per game will barely be top 10.

18. Eagles Starter (Philadelphia Eagles)- Whoever the Eagles start will get similar stats. 12-15 points per game.

19. Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay Bucs)- Don’t expect the Luck and RGIII emergence of a few years ago. I’m thinking Winston will have more of a Teddy Bridgewater type of rookie season.

20. Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers)- He had a really good year last year, but man some of those games were UGLY. Missing Antonio Gates for 4 games doesn’t help.

21. Derek Carr (Oakland Raiders)- I’m very intrigued by this Raiders team. He averaged 11 points per game as a rookie and I think he got better and the Raiders got better in the offseason. Intrigued.

22. Geno Smith (New York Jets)- In Week 17 last season he showed poise, accuracy, a big arm, and found Eric Decker for both of their best performances of the season. Geno might be worth a flier as a backup or QB2 just to see what happens. New Head coach, new Red Zone threat in Brandon Marshall… this might just be crazy enough to work!

23. Everyone else- Not relevant.

Hope you enjoyed and I’ll be posting my Running Backs Rankings next week!

2015 WR “Sophomore Slump” Candidates

bradleybertoniere Food For Thought, Sophomores, Wide Receivers , , , , ,

Before getting into a bunch of stats and analysis I would first like to define what a “sophomore slump” is.  This is where a Rookie Wide Receiver performs at or above expectations statistically in their rookie year, but then sees a dramatic decrease in statistics in their sophomore year.  Now 2014 had a Wr class like no other.  4 Wide Receivers taken in the first round finished with at least 982 yards and 6 or more td’s.  This may be a moot point to make at all when it comes to these wide receivers as they look to be special, but we all know past production drives up where players are drafted.  So this post will examine which of the four have the greater chance to go down in production.  The four wide receiver candidates are: Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., and Kelvin Benjamin.  Before we go into their stats and projections for next season let’s look at some past sophomore disappointments.

2014 Sophomore Slumpers:

Keenan Allen- Rookie Season 2013- 105 Targets, 71 Receptions, 1046 Yards, 8 Td’s in 15 Games.  ESPN Average Draft Position (ADP): 51.4  Sophomore Season 2014- 121 Targets, 77 Receptions, 783 Yards, 4 Td’s in 14 Games.  Keenan saw his targets and receptions go up, but he had 263 less yards and his touchdown total was cut in half.

Cordarelle Patterson- Rookie Season 2013- 78 Targets, 45 Receptions, 469 Yards, 4 Td’s, 158 Yards Rushing, 3 Rushing Td’s in 16 Games.  ESPN ADP: 62.3  Sophomore Season 2014- 67 Targets, 33 Receptions, 384 Yards, 1 Td, 117 Yards Rushing, 1 Rushing Td in 16 Games.  Cordarelle went down in every single category.  Now sure some of the blame has to be on Adrian Peterson missing the entire year and defenses focusing in on Cordarelle, but it’s still a slump.

Honorable Mention Slumpage:

Tavon Austin-  Because the definition of a sophomore slump is a rookie performing at our above expectation Austin does not qualify because he was terrible in his rookie season.  He did have 418 yards receiving and 4 receiving td’s and his production fell to 242 receiving yards and 0 receiving td’s, but the difference is Austin wasn’t expected to do anything this season.  His ADP was 134.4… so no fantasy player is blaming their 2014 season on Tavon Austin.

Now several wide receivers that had decent rookie seasons in 2013 did better in their sophomore season: DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Hunter, and Kenny Stills.  But that’s not what this article is about.  It isn’t about who did better and who did worse, it’s about where sophomores are drafted in fantasy football drafts and how people can get burned by their decision.  For example, Allen’s ADP was 51.4 and Patterson’s was 62.3.  Emmanuel Sanders ADP was 74.2, Jeremy Maclin’s ADP was 76.2, T.Y. Hilton’s ADP was 76.2, and Golden Tate’s ADP was 84.2.  So if you are choosing a player 2-3 rounds before some other choices and they stink it up, that’s the slump we are trying to avoid.

2013 Slumper- Justin Blackmon

2012 Slumper- Titus Young

But neither of these two went crazy in their rookie seasons…crazy in terms of production, they both have…let’s say “maturity” issues.  So let’s switch gears and look at the very successful rookies of 2014.

2015 Sophomore Slump Candidates:

Sammy Watkins- Rookie Season 2014- 128 Targets, 65 Receptions, 982 Yards, 6 Td’s in 16 Games.  Watkins showed a plethora of talent and he had a great rookie season.  He had more receiving yards than Julio Jones did in his rookie season back in 2012.  The only reason why it doesn’t seem that good is due to the other three rookies I’ll be comparing him with.  The Bills offseason is going to be an interesting one.  This past season they benched EJ Manuel and went with Kyle Orton at Qb, they had a stifling defense, they were committed to the run, and their head coach was Doug Marrone.  Now it looks like Kyle Orton will be retiring, the GM wants EJ Manuel to be the starter, and Doug Marrone opted out of his contract.  It’ll be interesting to see who the Bills bring in and whether or not they can get EJ Manuel where he needs to be.  Fred Jackson is getting older and the oft-injured CJ Spiller is a free agent this offseason.  Would they look for a more pass-happy coach to develop Manuel and try to keep up in a division with Brady and Tannehill?  My prediction: I think Sammy is extremely talented and if they can get some consistent QB play I think he can do some work.  But this is still WAY early, so a lot can change depending on offseason injuries, scheme changes, etc.  He could be a value pick in rounds 5-7 or he could be a bust.  I’m leaning towards value pick as long as people don’t reach for him.

Mike Evans- Rookie Season 2014- 124 Targets, 68 Receptions, 1051 Yards, 12 Td’s in 15 Games.  I knew Mike Evans “had a motor” as Gruden would say, but I didn’t expect a season this good.  He had two mediocre quarter backs throwing him the ball in Josh McCown and Mike Glennon.  McCown might have been the better of the two and his QBR was a 35.7.  (Geno Smith’s was a 35.4)  Evans counterpart Vincent Jackson should be back next season, so that’s good in terms of Evans avoiding double team style coverages.  The biggest factor for Evans will be who the Bucs draft with the #1 Overall Pick this offseason.  If they draft a Mariota or a Winston does his production suffer as a result of them having to teach and babysit a rookie QB?  My prediction: my gut is telling me that Evans has a much higher chance of doing worse than he did this season than Odell Beckham Jr. and Sammy Watkins.  Unless something changes in the offseason that throws a curve ball, I think Evans drops in production.

Odell Beckham Jr.- Rookie Season 2014- 132 Targets, 91 Receptions, 1305 Yards, 12 Td’s in 12 Games!  The Catch.  The internet exploded when ODB caught that ball.  Another thing happened after that catch was made.  Eli Manning made the decision that he officially trusted Odell to catch whatever he threw his way.  71 of his targets, 50 of his receptions, 696 of his receiving yards, and 7 of his td’s came in games after that Dallas game with the catch.  So 54% of his targets, 55% of his receptions, 53% of his yards, and 58% of his touchdowns came in the last 5 weeks of the season.  Eli trusted him and slung the football his way.  In Week 17, Eli targeted Odell 21 times!  Eli wanted to trust Reuben Randle, but Randle kept dropping key balls in the red zone or on third down.  Randle didn’t make amazing plays and every time he had a chance to step up and be the guy he disappointed.  My prediction:  Victor Cruz will be back and Eli continues to learn Ben McAdoo’s system.  Odell continues his success and finishes the 2015 season with right about the same stats.  The problem for Odell will most likely be his ADP.  I’m hearing estimates of him getting drafted in the 2nd Round or higher.  Often with hype, disappointment follows, but he has the skills, he has his qb’s trust, and he has a bright future in the NFL.  I don’t think he slumps, but will he perform with the Jordy Nelson’s, Julio Jones, and AJ Greens of the world next season?  He did this year, but now defenses know to key in on him.  We’ll have to wait to find out.  Victor Cruz might be the value pick up.

Kelvin Benjamin- Rookie Season 2014- 146 Targets, 73 Catches, 1008 Yards, 9 Td’s in 16 Games.  Kelvin was the man in Carolina.  Steve Smith Sr. moved on to Baltimore and the Panthers WR core consisted of Benjamin and a veteran that seemed like he belonged on the Island of Misfit Toys (Jerricho Cotchery).  Naturally Cam Newton threw Benjamin the rock and he had a very successful rookie campaign.  Will Kelvin drop down like Keenan Allen did this season?  Allen was injured and looked like he was in a funk all season.  Benjamin is much bigger than Allen (6’5″ 240 vs. 6’2″ 211) and plays in the underperforming NFC South where the points are made up and the defenses don’t matter.  (Other than the Panthers, but Benjamin plays for them)  My prediction: I would draft him as my WR2 or potential Flex player with the expectation of 1000-1200 yards and 8 td’s.  If his ADP is around 70’s or so then I would feel confident in choosing him.

So there you have it.  Your candidates.  My listing of most likely to slump to least likely to slump:

1. Mike Evans- Most likely drops in touchdown production.

2. Sammy Watkins- All depends on scheme, coach, and who is throwing the rock.

3. Kelvin Benjamin- I think he does eerily similar numbers next season.

4. Odell Beckham Jr.- Could be the most exciting player to watch next season, but he could also be the most disappointing if his stringy body gets injured.  The factor that causes me to believe that his production will remain close to what he did in his rookie campaign is that he did all this in 12 games.  #1 Rookie Wideout in terms of Receptions, Yardage, and Td’s and in 3-4 less games than the other three.

Hope you enjoyed!

-FF Brad

My 15th Year of Fantasy Football

bradleybertoniere Uncategorized

Hey There Sports Fans!

This is my first ever official “blog” but don’t let that fool you.  I have been writing about fantasy football since 2001.  In my league message boards I’ve written everything from weekly predictions, power rankings, draft analysis, season predictions, sleepers/busts, rookies to watch out for, and drafting strategies that work.  I averaged writing over 1500-2000 words at least per week about fantasy football.  With that amount of experience I have learned a lot of ways to be successful and a lot of ways to not be successful when playing fantasy football.  There are a few people in each of the leagues that I play in that continually swirl at the bottom of the rankings and others that are consistent contenders year in and year out.  Why?  Read future posts to find out.  In one league we are approaching its 15th season.  In 15 years I have won the championship once and been to the Super Bowl 4 times.  In another league started 6 years ago, I have made it to the Super Bowl 4 times and have won it twice.  I’m the commissioner of both leagues, so I know what it takes to help people get leagues going and how to stimulate the smack talk with the league seems to be getting a bit dull or owners seem disinterested.

If you’re not convinced that you should be reading this blog weekly (maybe daily during football season) then maybe some stats could convince you otherwise:

These leagues will be used as examples/debatable topics in the future:

Mandeville League: (Since 2006 since years 2001-2005 were lost to expired yahoo accounts) 62-64 Record (1-3 in Super Bowls)  Scoring System: Old School- Qb Td- 4, .25/1 Yard Passing- 1, Rb/Wr Td- 6, .1/yard, NO DEFENSE, Kickers- 3’s, 1’s, and -1’s.

BBY Dream Team League: (Since 2009) 48-30 Record (2-2 in Super Bowls) Scoring System: New- Partial PPR, Defenses, Bonuses for 100,200,and 300 yard games, big play bonuses, field goals are extra for longer kicks.

Some of the best drafted players that I knew would do well:

Matt Schaub 2009.  Led my team to a Super Bowl victory.  Schaub had been injured the previous season and I drafted him in Round 10.  He finished the season as a top 5 qb.

Matt Stafford and Darren Sproles 2011.  Led my team to a Super Bowl victory.  Stafford was also injured in 2010, but in those two games he started in 2009 he threw for over 300 yards in each, which made the decision to draft him in Round 10 worth it, especially considering he threw for over 5000 yards in 2011.  Sproles finished his first season with the Saints with 603 rushing yards, 2 rushing td’s, 86 receptions, 710 yards receiving, and 7 receiving touchdowns.

Peyton Manning 2012.  Led my team to a Super Bowl loss.  How typical of Peyton.  He’s such a tease, but I drafted him in his first season in Denver and it paid off as he finished the season with 4659 yards and 37 td’s.  Do you see a pattern?  Injured players drop in fantasy drafts the following season and provide good value.  How have more people not figured that out?!?!I finished the regular season with an 11-2 record.

Jamaal Charles and Anquan Boldin 2013.  Lead my team to a Super Bowl loss.  These aren’t as good “sleeper” picks as the others, but Boldin balled out as Kaepernick’s favorite target in 2013 and Jamaal Charles scored 59.7 points in Week 15 of the playoffs shooting me to my 3rd straight Super Bowl appearance in the BBY Dream Team League.

Andrew Luck and Jeremy Maclin 2014.  Lead my team to an 8-5 record and 1st Round Playoff loss.  I drafted Jeremy Maclin in all 4 leagues I played in this past year.  All four.  I had 100% confidence that he would have a good season.  For those of you who did not draft Maclin in the mid rounds here are some signs that you missed in the offseason: DeSean Jackson had 82 receptions, 1332 receiving yards, and 9 touchdowns in 2013; his first (and only) season in Chip Kelly’s offense.  He was cut from the team.  Maclin missed all of 2013 due to injury (hey! it happened again!).  He became the #1 Wr once Jackson was cut. 2014 was a contract year for Maclin.  Where did you think those 82-1332-9 numbers were going to go to?  Riley Cooper?  Really?  Also, Andrew Luck.  I figured this would be the last season where you could draft Luck in rounds 3-5 because he’s been becoming a better fantasy qb every season he’s been in the league.  The guy can straight ball out.  He’s now been Top 10 in 2012, Top 5 in 2013, to #1 in 2014.

I’m going to be writing about fantasy football because it’s my hobby, it’s my passion, and I love doing it.  I will not always be right, nobody ever is.  Remember, every day moves are being made and players’ situations are changing.  Paying attention all offseason in preparation for the draft next summer is key to success.  Looking forward to future posts!

-FF Brad